One of the goals for Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos as the offseason approaches is to improve starting pitching.
Due to injuries to Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, Atlanta used Max Fried for only his second start in a month (due to a blister) in game two, followed by a struggling Bryce Elder in game three.
With the news that Wright will miss the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, Atlanta is expected to prioritize adding a frontline starter…even if Charlie Morton returns on a $20 million club option for his age 40 season.
Trevor Bauer has been one of the most frequently mentioned names by fans.
He was 17 starts into a three-year, $102 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021 when a sexual assault allegation and an MLB suspension abruptly ended his season and, ultimately, his Dodgers tenure. After no MLB team offered him a contract for 2023, he pitched in Japan last season.
Let’s go over the advantages and disadvantages of signing Trevor Bauer if you’re the Atlanta Braves.
Why should you sign Trevor Bauer?
From a baseball standpoint, this should be simple, right? He’s 83-69 with a 3.79 ERA in his career, which is a solid floor for a #3 pitcher in MLB. And he’s coming off a dominant, albeit brief, 2020 season in which he went 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP.
While he didn’t live up to his top prospect status in his first few years, his 2021 season was more in line with the Cy Young award, with a 2.59 ERA and 8-5 record over his first 17 Dodgers starts before being placed on the restricted list and eventually released.
So, based on his previous performance, he’d be somewhere between a #3 and #2 pitcher for Atlanta, but (theoretically) at a much lower contract than comparable free-agent options.
Bauer, a previous proponent of one-year contracts and “betting on himself,” signed a three-year, $102 million contract with the Dodgers, giving himself a player option for the 2022 and 2023 seasons for maximum leverage.
Bauer’s contract situation would now be significantly different in theory.
He’s not using his Cy Young award to command the highest possible salary; he’s just trying to get back into MLB. In this scenario, a shorter-term deal with a lower AAV appears most likely. I could see a team offering $15 million on a one-year deal, or perhaps $20 million on a two-year deal, and he could try to negotiate a player option or, more likely, an opt-out if he does return to frontline starter form.
(He’s also doing well financially. He pitched in Japan for the entire 2023 season for a maximum of $4 million while also receiving his full 2023 Dodgers salary. He is estimated to have earned $104 million during his 13 seasons in the major leagues.)
In this case, the delta – the difference between his pay and his on-field performance – has the potential to be quite significant.
What makes you think you don’t want to sign Trevor Bauer?
It’s a distraction, and it could be a big one.
We’re not going to go into detail about the accusations leveled against Bauer, but there were multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and violence leveled against him by multiple women, prompting the record-length 324-day MLB suspension (lowered to 194 on appeal).
DISCLAIMER: Bauer has not been officially charged with any crime. The relevant authorities have declined to issue charges in the majority of cases. The only legal proceeding arising from the allegations was a restraining order hearing against Bauer in California, which resulted in a victory for his side, and he has paid no money to settle any of these cases.
Despite the fact that he has not been formally charged with a crime, a sizable number of fans dislike him and do not want him to play in MLB at all, let alone for their team.
Aside from the assault allegations, there has always been talk in the clubhouse that he can…rub some teammates the wrong way. He’s been described as “brutally honest” and “blunt,” with unconventional training methods and a disdain for those who insist he do things his way. Tensions between him and Cleveland manager Terry Francona were allegedly the reason he was traded, and he was occasionally referred to as “MLB’s most hated man” prior to any of the accusations and suspension.
He’s had spats with the commissioner and MLB over “sticky stuff,” has a history of harassing others, particularly women, on social media, and has dabbled in politically charged topics, including the name of the Cleveland Indians.
To Bauer’s credit, former Dodgers teammate Mookie Betts went on the record this week with the LA Times denying any animosity or problems with Bauer in the Dodgers clubhouse:
Bauer, who has over 685,000 subscribers on his YouTube vlog, attracts both positive and negative attention wherever he goes.
As our own Jake Mastroianni put it on Locked On Braves just the other day: Jake went on to make the case that Atlanta does not handle distraction well, citing the Orlando Arcia clubhouse comments from the NLDS, where he was accused (and later admitted to) chirping Bryce Harper after the Phillies slugger was doubled off at first base to seal Atlanta’s game two comeback victory.
As the series returned to Philadelphia, Harper used it as fuel, and the Braves – as a clubhouse, as an organization – did not handle it well.
Atlanta dealt with the distraction of Marcell Ozuna’s two arrests – one for domestic violence, with charges dropped, and one for driving while intoxicated – with tenacity, essentially saying nothing and continuing to play Ozuna when he returned from injury.
This isn’t an organization that has had to deal with active sources of distraction within the clubhouse on a regular basis, and it’s unclear whether they will now.
All of the talk about Bauer’s potential distraction in the clubhouse has overshadowed the question of whether he’d be effective after returning to MLB. Bauer pitched for the Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan’s Central League last season.
Bauer pitched well after a rough start to the season, going 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 19 starts. He struck out 130 batters in 130.2 innings before a minor hip injury ended his season just before the playoffs, but the level of competition he faced is a concern. The Japan Central League is regarded as one of the highest-quality international leagues outside of Major League Baseball, but it is sometimes compared to AA in MLB’s minor leagues.
Will Bauer be able to return to the Major League rotation right away, or will he need time in the minors to re-acclimate to MLB baseball and facing the best hitters on the planet? Another unknown that must be considered before making a decision, and which may influence the level of financial commitment that a team is willing to make.
So, should Atlanta go ahead with it?
I’m not sure. It’s not an easy decision, nor is it purely a baseball decision. Any MLB organization considering signing Trevor Bauer should have a conversation with people from communications, ownership, and, yes, current players.
(To his credit, Jake suggests discussing the possibility with some of the current roster, specifically mentioning Travis D’Arnaud as a clubhouse leader who should be able to weigh in on the roster’s overall sentiment toward a potential signing.)
My gut tells me that Atlanta will not do it, owing to the lack of an individual owner willing to step up and take…well, ownership of the situation, as well as the franchise’s relatively low past history of “loud” and “distracting” players in comparison to other organizations.
But you never know – Alex Anthopoulos has stated that they are looking into every possible roster upgrade to ensure a repeat trip to the postseason and (hopefully) a much deeper playoff run than they have seen in recent years. At this point, almost anything is possible.
(Except maybe Atlanta blowing out the bank to sign anyone for more than $22M/year. That appears to be the one bridge they’ve come close to crossing – Freddie’s reported final offer would have been just over $23M – but have yet to cross.)
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