JUST IN: Tigers Targets Reds baseman, negotiation in final stage

Jonathan India, if available for a reasonable price, could be the answer to the Tigers’ revolving door at second base.

As we enter the busy part of the offseason, it appears more likely that the Reds will trade starting second baseman Jonathan India. While Cincinnati’s president of baseball operations, Nick Krall, has stated that the team is not motivated to move him, his name continues to appear among baseball’s most respected beat writers, and where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Detroit Tigers enter the picture. The Tigers are a team on the rise, with a core of young talent that could put them in contention in a weakened AL Central Division as early as this season. The Tigers should be looking for players who not only complement the core but also fit the timeline, with Tarik Skubal, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, and (hopefully) healthy Riley Greene and Casey Mize. Scott Harris has already brought in a quality veteran outfield bat in Mark Canha, but there is still plenty of room for additions.

Second base has been a revolving door in Detroit since Ian Kinsler was traded at the end of the 2017 season. From memory, here is a partial list of players who have played second base since 2018: Niko Goodrum, Gordon Beckham, Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Zack McKinstry, and Andy Ibáez are among those who have participated. I’m sure that trip down memory lane evokes a variety of emotions. There aren’t going to be many good ones either.

Jonathan India is far from a perfect player, but he’s only 26 years old, has three years until free agency, and possesses the strikezone control that has been a hallmark of Scott Harris’ acquisitions. For the right price, he could be the answer to the Tigers’ second-base problems.

As a 24-year-old, India was named National League Rookie of the Year in 2021. In 150 games that season, he had 3.1 fWAR, a 122 wRC+, a.376 on-base percentage, and a.190 ISO. India hit 21 home runs and drove in 69 runs, with the obligatory “nice” comment, while walking 11.3% of the time. In addition, he stole 12 bases and played average defense.

India has struggled to stay on the field since his breakout season. Due to a nagging hamstring injury, he only played 103 games in 2022, and his numbers on both sides of the ball dropped. He was on the injured list last season due to plantar fasciitis. He had better results in 119 games than in 2022, but only 1.2 fWAR with 99 wRC+.

When you scratch the surface, there’s a lot to like about India’s approach. Last year, his expected wOBA was 12 points higher than his actual. In baseball, his chase rate is in the 93rd percentile. He has more whiffs, strikeouts, and walks than the average batter. His base running value is in the 84th percentile, and his spray chart shows he has power to all fields. That’s the profile of a player who should be a solidly above-average offensive producer, and it’s also the profile of a player who Scott Harris has shown a lot of interest in.

It’s all about perceived value on both sides of a trade for a player like Jonathan India. The notoriously frugal Reds have a glut of infield prospects vying for playing time, and while India is far from old and expensive, he isn’t as young or as cheap as Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, both of whom appear to be future stars. At this point, India is most valuable to the Reds as a trade piece capable of bringing back the starting pitching they sorely needed for the stretch run. For the Tigers, you’re excited about what India could become, but you also have to recognize what India is now: a replacement level infielder with upside.

India possesses the tools to be the hitter who earned him the rookie of the year award, but he must remain on the field to demonstrate this. I’m not a doctor, but hamstring strain and plantar fasciitis don’t seem to be related. Nonetheless, nagging injuries have caused him to miss significant time for the past two seasons. Nobody knows if the issues caused a drop in defensive value, but he’s been well below average at second base after a stellar rookie season.

The Reds are looking for starting pitching, but given his recent seasons and the fact that he’s now arbitration eligible, I can’t see a contender parting with a top starting prospect or anything more than a backend rotational piece. Given the departure of Eduardo Rodriguez, the Tigers are also looking for starting pitching, so they don’t appear to be a good fit for the Reds.

If the Tigers do pursue India, I’d guess the Reds ask for Matt Manning or Reese Olson off the top of my head. I rate Olson higher than Manning, and Olson has more team control, so he’d be a non-starter for me. Manning, on the other hand, has pitched better than his peripheral statistics would suggest, but he’s struggled to stay on the field due to injuries, some of which have been pure bad luck. Manning has one more season before becoming eligible for arbitration, but the trade is intriguing because it involves two players with injury issues who both organizations would like to see more of. This trade feels “meh” for both parties, which could indicate that it could work.

The Tigers should also consider their in-house alternatives. Aside from Andy Ibáez, who had a strong season, Colt Keith played second base for Erie and Toledo last season and has nothing more to prove in the minors. Surprisingly, Fangraphs projects Keith and India to have the same offensive output in 2024. Jace Jung is also making rapid progress through the system. As a result, Matt Manning may become an overpay in the eyes of the Tigers’ front office.

Still, Keith and Jung are prospects, and India has demonstrated that he can be an above-average major leaguer. He’s also a capable right-handed batter on a team that could use some more balance in that department.

Whatever happens, Jonathan India will be a fascinating player to watch this offseason. The Reds will market him as if he’s the same player who burst onto the scene in 2021, while opponents will look to acquire him as the injury-prone replacement level player he’s been the last two years.

The Tigers require an upgrade at second base or in the infield in general, but it is unclear how significant an upgrade India would represent. If the Reds expect a major league starting pitcher, I’d pass on that deal. However, if the Reds are dead set on trading him and are willing to lower their asking price, Detroit would be wise to build a package around a high minors starting pitcher like Ty Madden.

It’s worth looking into if the Tigers believe they can get India back on track and producing like he did before the injury bug bit.