NFC Playoff  update: The race for the Wild Card is heating up.

With a tough loss on Thanksgiving, the Detroit Lions’ chances of winning the division took a minor hit, and their chances of stealing the conference’s top seed have all but vanished. But one thing remains in excellent shape: their chances of making the playoffs overall. With six weeks left in the season, they still have a significant lead. For Detroit to miss the playoffs, it would take a gracious fall combined with an unlikely run-of-the-mill performance from a bad team or two.

With only “Monday Night Football” remaining in Week 12, let’s take a closer look at the NFC Playoff picture.

NFC North

1. Lions: 8-3
2. Vikings: 6-5
3. Packers: 5-6
4. Bears: 3-8

Detroit currently leads the division by two games, but Monday’s game between the Vikings and Bears could have a significant impact on the division’s outlook. Take a look at the Lions’ NFC North odds based on each outcome, as calculated by the New York Times’ playoff simulator.

If the Vikings win, they have an 86% chance of winning the division.
If the Bears win, they have a 94% chance of winning the division.

It’s a good reminder that the Lions are still in a good position, but an eight percent swing is not insignificant.

NFC Playoff Picture

Division leaders:

1. Eagles: 10-1
2. 49ers: 8-3
3. Lions: 8-3
4. Falcons: 5-6

Wild Card race (top three advance)

1. Cowboys: 8-3
2. Vikings: 6-5
3. Seahawks: 6-5
4. Packers: 5-6
5. Rams: 5-6
6. Saints: 5-6
7. Buccaneers: 4-7
8. Giants: 4-8
9. Commanders: 4-8
10. Bears 3-7
11. Cardinals: 2-10
12. Panthers: 1-10

The Lions maintain a three-game lead over the top team out of the playoff picture, but the Packers, Rams, and Saints are now the only teams with a 5-6 record: the Packers, Rams, and Saints. All three of those teams are now in the hunt for a playoff spot. According to the New York Times, the odds for each playoff round are as follows.

Packers: 45%
Rams: 37%
Saints: 43%

Meanwhile, the Seahawks, who have lost three of their last four games, are the team most in danger of losing their spot. Their playoff odds (34%) have actually dropped below those of the Rams, most likely because Los Angeles has already beaten them twice. The Vikings are also on shaky ground. They currently have a 69% chance of making the playoffs, but that drops to around 52% if they lose to the Bears.

How does this affect the Lions? If the Lions continue to struggle, there will be more teams to keep an eye on to ensure they don’t go on a run. The more teams competing, the more likely you are to lose your spot. From now until the end of the season, you should actively root against the Packers, Rams, Saints, and Seahawks.

Of course, if the Lions win even half of their remaining games, you won’t have to keep an eye on this situation. According to the New York Times, the Lions’ playoff odds remain at 99%, and their 11-6 record makes them nearly impossible to catch. Having said that, the scrapping at the bottom of the Wild Card race will obviously have a big impact on the first-round playoff matchups, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.