As December approaches, the hot stove is preparing to cook. Several significant dominoes have fallen in recent days, and many more are expected to fall as the days pass. The Braves are still looking for a starting pitcher, and as the top free agents continue to fall off the market, many teams are turning to the trade market.
This is part of a series in which I create hypothetical trade packages for players who are rumored to be available. According to Jon Morosi, the Cubs and Reds are in talks with the Guardians and Rays about Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber.
I’ve already put together a hypothetical trade package for Tyler Glasnow and several other players on the market. If you missed any of them, please see the links below.
Braves make hypothetical trade for Tyler Glasnow
Braves hypothetical trade for Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta
Braves hypothetical trade for Christian Yelich, Devin Williams, and Willy Adames
Braves hypothetical trade for Dylan Bundy Stop,
Braves. Trade Hypothesis Shane Bieber
Dylan Dodd and Spencer Schwellenbach join the Guardians.
The Guardians would have laughed in Alex Anthopoulos’ face if he tried to offer something like this to Shane Bieber a few years ago. However, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner is a shell of the pitcher he once was, owing to a significant drop in velocity.
Shane Bieber’s heater has lost three MPH since winning the Cy Young. In 2020, he averaged 14.2 K/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 2021. That figure fell to 8.9 last year and has now dropped to 7.5 this season.
The source of the problem appears to be a shoulder injury Bieber sustained in 2021. If you read the blog regularly, you know how much I despise pitcher-related problems. They differ from Tommy John surgery in that pitchers are rarely the same afterward; consider how the Braves reacted to Kyle Wright after he suffered a shoulder injury in 2022.
I don’t expect the velocity to magically increase again, but Bieber has had some success despite the drop in velocity, posting a 2.88 ERA over 31 starts in 2022 and a 3.80 ERA in 2023.
Bieber is in his final year of arbitration and is expected to earn around $12 million. Look elsewhere if you’re hoping to land an ace. However, for a couple of mid-level prospects, the Braves might be willing to take a chance on him. At the very least, he adds some stability to Atlanta’s rotation while also providing some upside.
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