BREAKING NEWS: NFL insider blast NFL board for brutal decisions on Cowboys boss McCarthy

We made the case for Dak Prescott to be the league MVP almost a month ago. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Prescott was tied for the tenth best odds at the time. He currently has the best odds of winning the award.

So, here’s another shot: Mike McCarthy deserves to be considered for Coach of the Year.
McCarthy, as you can see, has the ninth best odds for the award. To be honest, that figure should be much higher. McCarthy is doing some amazing things in Dallas, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the impact he’s had on this team.

For starters, a head coach’s primary responsibility is to win. McCarthy made it three straight seasons with double-digit wins after defeating the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. That hasn’t happened in this franchise since the 1990s.

Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers is the only other coach to have won double-digit games in each of the last three years. There are three other coaches who could do that this year: Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals), Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills), and Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs). Even though it appears unlikely that all three of them will be successful, McCarthy joins a very select group of coaches.

Of course, McCarthy’s case extends beyond victories. This season is unlike any other in McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas, and it all stems from a (at the time) contentious decision made by McCarthy in the offseason. Of course, this is his decision to fire offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and start calling plays himself.

The Cowboys offense would become more conservative and run-heavy, while the Chargers and Justin Herbert would thrive with Moore running his offense without interference from McCarthy.

Many people believed that McCarthy taking over play-calling would be a disaster not only for Dallas, but for Prescott in particular.
With four weeks of the regular season remaining, all of those offseason narratives have been reduced to ash. To begin with, the offense did not become more conservative or run-heavy. The Cowboys are currently fifth in early down pass rate and fourth in deep pass rate, after finishing 2022 ranked 26th in early down pass rate and 17th in rate of throws 20+ yards downfield.

McCarthy’s aggression has helped the offense as a whole. They are second in EPA/play, fourth in success rate, sixth in offensive DVOA, and first in drive success rate in the league. If you prefer volume statistics, the Cowboys rank fourth in total yards of offense and first in offensive points scored. They’re also dead last in turnovers while having the league’s best third-down conversion rate.

Every single one of these metrics is a significant improvement over Moore’s work from last year. Prescott’s MVP performance is also noteworthy. Following the uproar over his interceptions a year ago, Prescott has only six this year, with half of those coming in one game. He has the highest big-time throw rate in the league and the lowest turnover worthy play rate. He also ranks in the top five in completion rate and passing yards, and he leads the league in touchdown passes.

Mike McCarthy

Prescott, obviously, deserves a lot of credit for his performance. But, with the quarterback at the forefront of the MVP race in mid-December and playing better than he has at any point in his career, it’s reasonable to wonder what prompted this surge. There are numerous factors to consider, but the change in play-caller – and the wildly successful tweaks to the scheme that accompanied it – is one of the most important.

McCarthy is a proven winner – only four current head coaches have more career victories – but we hadn’t seen him run an offense since taking a year off to reinvent himself. We’re now looking at nearly a full season’s worth of data, and the results are astounding. Add to that the Cowboys’ five-game winning streak, which culminated in a dominant victory over the Eagles to take first place in the division.

But now comes the biggest test, and a chance for McCarthy to cement himself as a Coach of the Year favorite, much like Prescott did for the MVP race. The team has a chance to stack wins against some of the NFL’s best teams with road games against the Bills and Dolphins, followed by a home finale against the Lions. If McCarthy can continue to win and coordinate a hot offense, there will be no choice but to recognize his coaching job this year as one of the best.