JUST IN: Falcons club Insider reveals Falcons Unlikely To Fire Head Coach Arthur Smith after latest Development

The list of head coaches in recent NFL history who have gone 0-for-3 in playoff berths to begin a tenure and then been brought back for a fourth year is not long. While Robert Saleh is expected to buck the trend and return after three non-playoff seasons in New York, the Falcons are not expected to shake up their coaching staff.
Although Atlanta is tied for first place in the NFC South, making the playoffs may not be necessary for Arthur Smith to keep his job. The Falcons are unlikely to fire Smith in 2024, according to ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler.

This is in contrast to a job status report issued last month, which indicated Smith was more likely to leave than stay in 2024.

The Falcons are 6-7 after their loss to the Buccaneers. Smith’s first two seasons saw the team finish 7-10. Under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot, the Falcons began a bit of a rebuild, taking on significant dead money to move the contracts of Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, and Deion Jones.

However, the team appears to be heading out of Year 3 without a quarterback. After the Falcons backed the 2022 third-round pick all offseason, Desmond Ridder has had an inconsistent season, even being benched for Taylor Heinicke at one point.

Ridder is ranked 24th in QBR, and despite the Falcons selecting pass catchers in the top 10 in 2021 (Kyle Pitts) and 2022 (Drake London), he has only thrown nine touchdown passes (compared to nine interceptions) this season. The Falcons, who would have been in position to trade for Deshaun Watson had the Browns not come through with the incredible $230MM guarantee offer last year, have joined the rest of the NFL in passing on Lamar Jackson this offseason. Arthur Blank has expressed a desire to build around Ridder’s rookie contract, but the Falcons may need to look for a replacement in 2024.

The Falcons finished third in rushing last season but struggled mightily through the air in a season largely led by Marcus Mariota. After finishing 15th in scoring last season, Atlanta is now 24th in Ridder’s first full season as a starter. The team improved from 23rd to 12th under new DC Ryan Nielsen after being active in adding defenders this offseason. Smith, on the other hand, was hired to jumpstart Atlanta’s offense. That, for the most part, has not occurred.

The NFC South has had one of the worst two-year periods in NFL history, with the possibility of sending a second consecutive sub-.500 team to the playoffs. Every coach in the division has either been fired or is on the hot seat (Frank Reich). The Falcons finish the season with only one winning team remaining on their schedule (the 7-6 Colts). This could be Smith’s final opportunity to persuade ownership that he deserves a fourth season. If the Falcons sign Smith in 2024, he will undoubtedly start the season on a high note.