In the third year of the new regime’s tenure, the Falcons are stuck in neutral. Despite a significant investment in the roster this offseason, Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot find themselves in the same situation as the previous two seasons.
Through 13 games, the club is one game under.500 and currently sits second in the NFC South. There is a clear path to the playoffs, which would end a five-year drought. Winning would undoubtedly provide Smith with his first taste of playoff football as a head coach.
Fans’ confidence appears to be dwindling, however, because the Falcons are coming off a frustrating loss to the Buccaneers in a game that they had multiple chances to win, giving Atlanta a stranglehold on the division.
If the club misses the playoffs for the third consecutive season under Arthur Smith, there will be questions to be answered, particularly at quarterback. Regardless, unless the season ends in a collapse, those inquiries will not be directed at the head coach. Smith’s job, according to reports, is secure. Unless something drastic happens, he’ll be back in Atlanta next season.
So, it’s not impossible, but it’s extremely unlikely. However, if the position became available, it would be highly desirable. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell investigated ten potential head coaching openings and ranked them from best to worst, with the Falcons’ hypothetical position ranking third.
The full rankings are listed below, along with Barnwell’s thoughts on the pros and cons of each.
The Falcons are the NFC’s equivalent of the Bengals. Cincinnati stocked up on playmakers in the draft and built its defense through free agency. Atlanta did as well. Although the Falcons have a better offensive line, the overall roster-building strategy is similar.
There is one significant distinction. Joe Burrow was selected first overall by the Bengals in 2020. The Falcons passed on Justin Fields in order to draft Kyle Pitts in 2021, then selected Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft before failing to move up to take Anthony Richardson with the third overall pick in 2023. Bijan Robinson has been an exciting rookie, but all of the preseason talk about how he would be used as a unique playmaker has mostly proven to be nonsense. All season, Robinson has six catches for 58 yards on 46 routes out of the slot, with 33 of those yards coming on a glorified jet sweep last Sunday.
While the offense has dominated the conversation, the Falcons’ defense has kept them going. The Falcons rank seventh in QBR allowed and expected points added (EPA) per play, with Jessie Bates III in the midst of an All-Pro season. It’s a novel concept in Atlanta, where defense hasn’t been above-average since 2017, but this is the best defense the Falcons have fielded in a long time.
As a result, the Falcons have a resurgent defense, exciting young playmakers (who rarely see the field), and a quarterback who has already been benched once in 2023. A new coaching staff would be uninterested in Ridder, who is currently ranked 24th in QBR with four games remaining. Some coaches will see a Falcons opening and believe that with better quarterback play and more obvious playcalling, they can make better use of Atlanta’s highly drafted receivers.
I don’t disagree with anything Barnwell said because the quarterback position has been the Falcons’ Achilles’ heel. Desmond Ridder has demonstrated the ability to start in a pinch, provide tremendous support for his teammates, and go above and beyond to help his team win — all of which are characteristics of a premier backup quarterback.
His inability to consistently protect the football, on the other hand, will be his undoing. Ridder has nearly as many turnover-worthy plays as any other quarterback in the league, limiting the offense’s potential. Nonetheless, I believe Barnwell is overlooking an important factor in all of this.
The Falcons have only made a third-round pick and a couple of low-cost free agent signings in the quarterback position. They don’t have the franchise quarterback like the Chargers, who should undoubtedly be ahead of the Bears due to Justin Herbert, but they have vast resources to find one.
Atlanta has all of its draft picks, and while Barnwell mentioned a potentially limited budget due to last season’s spending spree, that is not the case. With a couple of cuts, the Falcons could have up to $45 million in cap space this offseason. The hypothetical head coach would have plenty of draft capital and future cap space at his disposal to find the franchise quarterback he desires.
Arthur Blank is one of the NFL’s most patient team owners, which is why this position is unlikely to become available. Jim Mora was sentenced to three years in prison. Bobby Petrino left after one year, but Mike Smith stayed for seven. Dan Quinn was fired in the middle of his sixth season. However, Mora, Mike Smith, and Quinn all made the playoffs within two seasons of taking over; if the Falcons do not make the playoffs in 2023, Arthur Smith will be in his third season.
Will Blank be willing to spend a lot of money on a quarterback? He has never hesitated to back his coaches in the past, but the Falcons went on a spending spree last offseason, signing six of their ten most frequently used defensive players this season in free agency, as well as giving large contracts to offensive linemen Kale McGary and Chris Lindstrom. The Falcons have more than $30 million in cap space to work with, but most coaches prefer to be present during the season, when the majority of the money is spent, rather than the year after. Given that there is still room in the budget and plenty to be excited about regarding the quarterback situation, I believe the Falcons would attract a lot of attention if the league’s two Arthurs split up after the season.
Though fans may dislike Arthur Blank, I’m sure most, if not all, prospective head coaches would love to work for the Falcons owner because he puts his money where his mouth is and is also more patient than most other owners. Those are desirable characteristics.
I doubt the position will be available this offseason, but there’s a reason Barnwell ranked it third: it’s desirable. It’s only one quarterback away from being one of the league’s worst situations.
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