With their win last weekend, the Falcons might have been in cruise control in this division, but instead they find themselves in a three-team dogfight after a string of errors and lost opportunities nearly gave the game away to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
With another divisional game scheduled, the margin for error is significantly reduced as the team now sits at 6-7 and is tied with both the Bucs and Saints.
This weekend’s opponent is a Carolina squad that isn’t having the season they had planned. With a 1–12 record, they have the worst record in the NFL. Their misery won’t even yield any results, as the Bears own the first round selection (perhaps the #1 pick overall).
After less than a year on the job, they have already lost their head coach and are in total disarray.
Let’s examine what would happen to the Falcons in Week 15 if they defeated the Panthers, as well as what would happen in the opposite situation.
If the Falcons win
As the race for the playoffs and a division title continues into the final three weeks of the season, a win by the Falcons would raise their divisional record to 4-1 and their overall record back to.500. After going 2-4 against the NFC South in 2021 and 2022, the Falcons’ three division victories this season are already the most under Arthur Smith. Four division victories in a single season would be the most the team has had since the 2019 campaign.
Atlanta would reclaim first place in the NFC South if the Buccaneers lose their game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. If the Saints also fell to the Giants, the Falcons would be the only team left in the NFC.
If the Bucs and Saints win as well, the division’s standings will remain unchanged, but a 7-7 record will guarantee the Falcons a spot in the wildcard round. Atlanta will actually hold the final NFC playoff spot if the Seahawks fall to the Eagles and the Rams lose to the Commanders.
The Birds have a 35% chance of making the playoffs right now, according to Playoffodds.com. Without reference to other scores, that figure will increase to 44% and, in the best case, may reach 52%.
If the Falcons lose
If the Falcons lose, they would theoretically still be in the running for a playoff berth and possibly even the division crown, but there won’t be much more to ask of a team that can’t even win against a team with one victory in a game that is practically a must-win. This is the kind of loss that totally deflates a season and leaves all of the players adrift in the middle of the ocean, where they must slowly fade away.
Tampa Bay would be one game closer to winning the tiebreaker over Atlanta if the Bucs and Saints both moved one game ahead of Atlanta. This is because their division record would be superior overall, and their conference record would be two games stronger. Given that there will probably be a lot of ties in the final stretch, the Falcons’ dismal conference record of 4-7 would also make things extremely difficult in the Wildcard battle.
In addition, Playoffodds.com would not view this loss positively, as, regardless of other outcomes, Atlanta’s chances of making the playoffs would drop to just 16%.
We’ll focus more on the draft now that a top pick is undoubtedly still in the mix. With a 6-7 record, the Falcons would now be picking eleventh, but clubs 6-9, with records of 5-8, are all within striking distance, with the Raiders currently selecting tenth at 6-8.
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