With the Houston Texans’ 19-16 overtime nail-biter win over the Tennessee Titans (doing Houston Oiler cosplay) on Sunday, nothing of real playoff significance was clinched. The Texans must complete their business over the next three weeks in order to return to the postseason for the first time since 2019. The Texans did, however, secure relevant football by improving to 8-6 on the season.
While it would be disastrous, the Texans could lose their next two games and still go into the final week of the season with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, even if they are 8-8. We do know that if the Texans win their final three games, they will be a playoff team. I’ll go over that below, but first, here are the AFC standings with remaining schedules for each team:
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS, 11-3 (AFC North division leaders)
Remaining schedule: at SF, vs MIA, vs PIT
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS, 10-4 (AFC East division leaders)
Remaining schedule: vs DAL, at BAL, vs BUF
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 9-5 (AFC West division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: vs LVG, vs CIN, at LAC
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 8-6 (AFC South division leaders)
Remaining Schedule: at TB, vs CAR, at TEN
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5. CLEVELAND BROWNS, 9-5 (Wild card #1)
Remaining Schedule: at HOU, vs NYJ, at CIN
6. CINCINNATI BENGALS, 8-6 (Wild card #2)
Remaining Schedule: at PIT, at KC, vs CLV
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 8-6 (Wild card #3)
Remaining Schedule: at ATL, vs LVG, vs HOU
8. HOUSTON TEXANS, 8-6
Remaining Schedule: vs CLV, vs TEN, at IND
9. BUFFALO BILLS, 8-6
Remaining Schedule: at LAC, vs NE, at MIA
10. PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 7-7
Remaining Schedule: vs CIN, at SEA, at BAL
11. DENVER BRONCOS, 7-7
Remaining Schedule: vs NE, vs LAC, at LVG
The Texans are still in contention for the AFC South title.
There were some teams that did the Texans no favors on Sunday (cough, DALLAS, cough), and we’ll get to them later, but the top seeded Ravens did the Texans and Colts a solid, beating the Jaguars 23-7 and tying the AFC South at three. If it ends in a three-way tie, the Jaguars will have the tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans (head to head among all three teams, Jags are 3-1), but when the Texans lost to the Jaguars in Week 12, this didn’t seem like a possibility. The big game this weekend is Jacksonville’s trip to Tampa to face the resurgent Buccaneers, and Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol.
The Houston Texans control their own playoff destiny with three games remaining.
Even if the Texans do not win the division, and despite being on the outside looking in in the AFC playoff race, if they win their final three games, they will be in the postseason. They play Cleveland this weekend, and a win will tie the two teams, with the Texans owning the tiebreaker (head to head). Also, if the Texans win, they will defeat the Colts in Week 18, handing them their seventh loss of the season. In short, 11-6 secures the Texans a playoff spot, but it won’t be easy. They require the return of C.J. Stroud.
This Sunday’s game against the Browns should feel like a playoff game.
When Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, it appeared that the Browns were doomed, despite the fact that Watson hadn’t played all that well. I’m a big enough man to admit that even a mediocre Watson is preferable to the other sludge on the Browns’ QB depth chart. However, the Browns wisely decided to bring in 39-year-old Joe Flacco off his couch, and he’s helped them win a couple of games with two 300-yard passing games. He’s also still prone to turnovers. We don’t know if C.J. Stroud will play on Sunday, but Case Keenum’s performance on the road this weekend should give the Texans some hope that they have a viable backup plan. In any case, this is a fantastic way to spend Christmas Eve afternoon!
The Bills’ victory over the Cowboys on Sunday presents a significant challenge for the other wild card teams.
Aside from the Texans, the Cowboys really screwed all of these AFC wild card contenders by not showing up at all against the Bills on Sunday. The Cowboys were defeated 31-10 in a game that was not as close as the final score suggests. (Yes, the Cowboys were beaten worse than their 21-point deficit would suggest.) The Bills’ next two games are against the Chargers and Patriots, followed by the season finale against a Dolphins team that may have nothing to play for if they aren’t the top overall seed by then. Cowboys, thank you for nothing.
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