LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) During any normal athletic season, the Battle of the Bluegrass is usually the most anticipated day for Louisville men’s basketball fans. Not only is their rivalry game against Kentucky the most important game of the season for the Cardinals, but it is also the most important regular-season game for the entire University of Louisville athletic department. But what about this year? Most Louisville fans are probably more excited about the day after the game against the Wildcats. Not because they want to forget what turned out to be a 95-76 drubbing on their home court, but because they believe a new era of Cardinals basketball is about to begin. It’s no secret that head coach Kenny Payne’s job has been on the line for quite some time now. Under his direction, the Cardinals are now 9-35, including a 5-7 record this season against one of the weakest non-conference schedules in men’s college basketball.
Following the events of Wednesday, Dec. 13, in which the program was thoroughly embarrassed both on and off the court, rumors of his potential immediate dismissal began to circulate throughout Louisville. This rumor quickly spread to the national level. On December 14, college basketball insider Jeff Goodman reported that athletic director Josh Heird had “met with multiple Louisville players today to get their thoughts on Kenny Payne and the entire situation with the program before making a decision,” and that Heird was leaning toward making a decision “fairly soon.” The next day, CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander reported that Louisville was expected to move on from Payne “sooner rather than later” and that UofL “will not drag this out over the course of the entire season,” but that it was unlikely before their game against Pepperdine.
. Given that the next game was only four days away against Kentucky, it was always highly unlikely that the UofL administration would make a move during that time. With the Kentucky game behind them, the perfect opportunity for a midseason firing has arrived. Louisville will not play again until Jan. 3, when they travel to Virginia, giving the Cardinals 13 days off for the holidays. If Payne is fired, the administration will have plenty of time to prepare an interim team to take over for the second half of the season. Payne will not return for a third season; that much is almost certain. But here’s the key question: Will athletic director Josh Heird and the University of Louisville administration act now, or will they wait until after the season? I know fans don’t want to consider this option, but let’s look at why it makes sense to do so. The money comes first and foremost. If UofL fired Payne right now, he would be owed an $8 million buyout. After the 2023–24 season, this figure will be reduced to $6 million. $2 million makes a difference for an athletic department that is still on the books for the buyout of former head coach Chris Mack, the settlement with former athletic director Tom Jurich, and the settlement with “Papa” John Schnatter for the former naming rights to Cardinal Stadium. One could argue that if Payne was finally fired, it would bring more fans to the KFC Yum! Center, putting more money in UofL’s pocket to help with the financial hit. Fans may show up for the first couple of games, but the product on the court is still subpar compared to what is expected at Louisville. I’m willing to bet that attendance will likely drop back to where it is now in the next month or so. Not to mention that season tickets have long been sold, so the University of Louisville already has that money. Then there’s the possibility of an interim, or, better yet, the absence of one. If Louisville fired Payne, who on his bench would you feel comfortable taking over as interim coach? Since their arrival before last season, none of the three main bench coaches have instilled much confidence in the fans. Danny Manning has previous interim experience with Maryland, but he only went 10-14 in the second half of the 2021–22 season. Nolan Smith is better known as a recruiter, and he hasn’t exactly endeared himself to the fanbase. Before joining Payne’s staff, Josh Jamieson had only coached at the high school level and with the University of Portland. There’s always the possibility of firing the entire staff in the middle of the season, which has been circulating since Goodman reported that Heird met with the players last Thursday. In that case, you’d have to look for a replacement for the second half of the season. Then you risk an influx of players leaving the program through the portal in the middle of the season. The players have been outspoken in their support for their coach. Who knows what kind of mutiny might occur if he’s fired before the season ends? As much as fans dislike hearing it, there are several reasons why Louisville should wait out the rest of the season before making a move. But first, let’s look at the reasoning for making a midseason move. The main reason for an immediate move is to avoid further damage to the Louisville brand and its national perception. Too many times during my tenure, I’ve thought to myself, “There’s no way in hell things can get any more ridiculous or embarrassing for this program,” only to be proven wrong shortly afterwards.
The Ty-Laur Johnson tights snafu, the Koron Davis saga, and numerous head-scratching comments from Payne almost every time he steps in front of a microphone, including his sudden realization in the UK postgame press conference that he should start using the transfer portal,. This is only what has happened in the last two months of a 21-month tenure. The actual product on the court is another matter entirely. It’s been nearly two years, and I still can’t tell you who they are on either end of the court with certainty. Furthermore, while the effort and energy level are much higher than they were for the 2022–23 team, there are still instances, such as the games against Coppin State and New Mexico State, where it appears they simply do not care. Most importantly, making a move in the middle of the season, regardless of the cost, would send a message to the fans that what has happened is simply unacceptable at a school that is regarded as a top-10 program all-time. Furthermore, the longer this staff is in charge, the greater the gap between them and the younger generation. Up until now, the only people who know Louisville as a traditional powerhouse are those in their 30s and 40s. Those who are younger are likely to associate Louisville with mediocrity and scandal. The University of Louisville risks alienating an entire generation of fans. What will become of Josh Heird? Nobody knows. What we do know is that there is a case to be made for firing Payne immediately and another for waiting until the end of the season. Which one will Heird pick? We’ll find out as soon as possible.
Leave a Reply