JUST IN:Michigan Football Project are more confident than the Vegas consensus that Michigan will defeat Alabama in next week’s Rose Bowl

The AI-powered projections from eavy Sports are more confident than the Vegas consensus that Michigan will defeat Alabama in next week’s Rose Bowl, where a trip to the College Football Playoff championship game is at stake.

According to Heavy’s projections, the top-ranked Wolverines have a 60 percent chance of defeating the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide. While the Heavy projections predict a close game, the projected spread — Michigan by 3.5 points — is more favorable to the Wolverines than online sportsbooks.

Heavy’s projections differ from the Vegas consensus in the following ways:

Heavy’s Predictions Favor Michigan Over Sportsbooks Do Heavy’s projections and the consensus among sportsbooks both predict a close game between Michigan and Alabama. The Rose Bowl is a one-possession game according to Heavy’s projected spread — what the model “thinks” the point spread should be — and every major sportsbook in our database. The data points are also completely consistent in naming Michigan as the favorite.

In terms of margins, the Heavy model stands out significantly more than the sportsbook spreads. As of late Tuesday night, six of seven sportsbook lines in our database had Michigan favored by 1.5 points. Another sportsbook had Michigan as a 2-point underdog. (Spreads from BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBET, SugarHouse, PointsBet, and Bet365 are included in the database.)

In addition, the Heavy model predicts a slightly higher-scoring game than the sportsbook consensus. The Heavy projected point total — the sum of both teams’ scoring output — was 46.5. This is a point and a half higher than the totals offered by SugarHouse, PointsBet, and Bet365, and two full points higher than the totals offered by BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and ESPNBET.

Total Outlet Spread Heavy* Michigan -3.5 46.5
Michigan -1.5 44.5 BetMGM Michigan -1.5 44.5 DraftKings Michigan -1.5 44.5 FanDuel Michigan -1.5 44.5
Michigan -2 44.5 at ESPNBET
SugarHouse Michigan -1.5 45 PointsBet Michigan -1.5 45 Points
Michigan -1.5 45 * The Heavy data point is a projected spread based on Quarter 4. All of the other outlets in the table are sportsbooks.

This season, Michigan football has blown out almost everyone it has faced.
Michigan (13-0) has outscored its opponents by a total of 354 points this season, for an average margin of victory of 27.2 points. Only three of the Wolverines’ games, against Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State, were decided by single digits. The Wolverines’ 30-24 victory over Ohio State on November 25 was their closest game of the season.

Michigan football ended a string of close games by defeating Iowa 26-0 in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3.

In comparison, Alabama (12-1) outscored its opponents by a total of 217 points. That’s a margin of 16.7 percent on average. On September 9, the Crimson Tide fell to Texas 34-24 at home. Four of Alabama’s victories were by six points or less, including a much-closer-than-expected 27-24 win over archrival Auburn on November 25.

Heavy Sports Projections vs. ESPN: A Comparison
Heavy’s prediction isn’t *that* dissimilar to ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor. Michigan has a 55.6 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN. The Heavy model, like other metrics, is more optimistic about Michigan’s chances, giving the Wolverines a 60 percent chance.

Michigan Probability ModelAlabama Probability: 60% 40%
ESPN 55.6% 44.4%
The two models diverge significantly more in the other national semifinal, which pits No. 2 Washington against No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Both models have Texas as the favorite to win. However, the Heavy model gives the Longhorns only a 56% chance of winning. Texas, on the other hand, has a 69.2 percent chance, according to the ESPN model.

Heavy’s projected spread — Texas by 2 — also differs from the sportsbook consensus, which has Texas as a 4-point or 4.5-point favorite in every book in our database.

Heavy’s Managing Editor is Ben Doody. He was a sports reporter and editor at The Trentonian in Trenton, New Jersey, a breaking news editor at Hearst Connecticut Media Group, and Connecticut Managing Editor for Digital First Media before joining Heavy in 2014. More information on Ben Doody