The Atlanta Falcons made a mistake four years ago when they gave coach Dan Quinn another year to fix the gaping holes in a sinking ship.
They need to give coach Arthur Smith another year to get his ship on the water after four years.
You may blame Smith for 2023’s shortcomings, blaming him for the offense’s stagnation and the poor decision to give Desmond Ridder the starting quarterback role without any significant competition. Sure, the ground game hasn’t been as effective as it was in 2022, and Ridder’s tenure hasn’t produced a franchise player.
Falcony fantasies included an easy NFC South title against one of the NFL’s easiest schedules, but Atlanta’s offense was a colossal disappointment.
Smith may have yet another losing season after three years if the team fails to win its next two games against the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints. He and general manager Terry Fontenot sold Arthur Blank on a three-year plan, and the end of those three years has left many with the same shrug of apathy, if not downright rage, as they felt at the end of the Quinn years.
That’s not to suggest Smith isn’t liable for 2023 feeling a lot like the first two years of his presidency. While his first two years with the Falcons were marred by cap concerns and a lengthy roster reshuffling, there were always flashes of offensive growth among the miseries of situational mediocrity.
This season has not always (or even consistently) exhibited those signs of improvement for Smith’s offense, which is particularly perplexing for a squad that appears to be as talented as it has in a long time. While some of that can be attributed to quarterback inconsistency and turnovers, there have been genuine schematic issues with the run game and passing concepts that bring Smith’s viability as a head coach and play caller into doubt.
Games like Sunday’s against the Indianapolis Colts demonstrate how brilliantly Smith’s plan can work, while games like the latest Carolina Panthers catastrophe demonstrate what happens when it sputters and craps out spectacularly.
If you believe Smith’s tenure in Atlanta can be summed up by tragedies in the Carolina rain, it’s understandable to want a change. If you believe Smith has the capacity to perform consistently like the squad did against Indianapolis, why not give him more time to discover it?
The plan has the potential to succeed.
Smith’s strengths are immediately discernible. With steady quarterback play, his approach has worked. You could see why his attacks can be a headache to plan against in games where Ridder didn’t turn the ball over and the run game got going. While red zone performance has always been inconsistent, there are players who may be red zone assets when interceptions aren’t thrown and drives go inside the 20.
Smith’s most brilliant moments can be vexing, and he should ditch the Jonnu Smith-MyCole Pruitt touchdown passes and direct-snap-to-KhaDarel Hodge notions in favor of the good stuff. However, his output from weakened rosters in 2021 and 2022 only serves to underscore why 2023 has been so dismal. We’ve seen his offensive function with significantly less firepower in the past. Will Smith’s offensive be more consistent if the team can locate a quality starter for 2024 and beyond? It is feasible!
If Smith is able to return to Atlanta next season, he will need to strike the perfect mix between innovation and situational common sense. However, we’ve seen him do what he does well while with the Falcons. It’s a compelling reason to keep him if the team is serious about making a significant investment at quarterback.
He is skilled at hiring assistance.
Hiring defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen alone could be enough to rescue Smith’s job. Nielsen’s ability to transform this defense into one of the league’s most entertaining groups may garner him head coaching consideration in the future, which is a tremendous compliment to his efforts.
Smith accomplished with Nielsen what Quinn failed to accomplish after Kyle Shanahan left for the San Francisco 49ers: he made a wise coordinator choice that resulted in immediate success.
Quinn’s ultimate coaching failure was failing to identify the appropriate person to manage the offense following Shanahan’s departure, as that iteration squad continued to live in the shadows of 2016 until it ran out of steam. Smith was tasked with replacing Dean Pees, and he (and perhaps Terry Fontenot, who knew him from New Orleans) hit a home run with Nielsen. The Falcons defense has been the standout performance of the 2023 season, which no one could have predicted a year ago.
Finding your supporting staff is one of the most important aspects of being a head coach, and Smith has demonstrated plenty of acumen when it comes to recruiting his assistant coaches. That matters, especially since he will almost certainly be asked to expand his offensive staff in 2024.
He has the backing of the team.
One repeating theme of Smith’s career has been his players’ praise for his leadership. Smith appears to have constructed a drama-free locker room that has his back, even in the toughest situations on the field, comparable to the culture Quinn introduced.
It may not be enough to save Smith’s job on its own, but it is something to seriously consider when contemplating a coaching change. Quinn’s ability to rally a team to believe in what you’re doing and how you’re doing it was one of the reasons he stayed with the Falcons for so long.
The Falcons have never hinted at a belief crisis during this wildly erratic season, which has to speak to Smith being the type of coach who can help his team weather adversity. It’s now ideal in the NFL to make your own weather, and Smith will need to find more sunny days if he wants to return in 2024.
However, culture must be taken into account.
Keeping Smith may not be popular, but it is the correct decision.
It’s difficult to shake the belief that sticking with Smith will lead to long-term success once the team finds its quarterback of the future and continues to bolster the squad.
Quinn was fired after several years of a downhill spiral. The seasons from 2017 to 2020 may be represented by a sloping arrow, as it felt like the team was only getting poorer and more reliant on its top-heavy squad to win games.
Smith’s reign does not feel that way. While the arrow has pointed down in 2023 after two years of zigzagging all over the place with rebuilding to deal with, Sunday’s game felt like a preview of a brighter future.
We know this team can do well when everything goes as planned, and it’s difficult for me to dismiss that potential. For that to happen, Smith would have to swallow the harsh pill that Ridder isn’t going to start next year and find a suitable replacement. Of course, anything less is unacceptable.
Blank would almost certainly demand a quarterback change regardless, but he should rely on his patience with Smith. Despite their complaints, Smith’s Falcons have remained competitive in some truly bizarre contests. While they need to improve their finishing, we might not even be talking about Smith’s employment if it weren’t for some late-game collapses.
Late-game breakdowns are a defining characteristic of this team, therefore the coach who regularly corrects them will be the coach who finds a home in Atlanta. Firing Smith may have many champions, but there is a road where it would be a rash decision following a terrible season.
Keeping Smith isn’t a sure thing, but it’s a better bet for instant success than changing coaches, which may mean another roster retooling and more transition time.
If I were Blank, I would give Smith another year to sort it out. He’s proved in the past that he can be the guy, and I believe he will be with the correct quarterback in place.
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