Last weekend, the Atlanta Falcons kept their playoff dreams alive with a thunderous and complete win over a very competent Indianapolis Colts club in their final home game of the regular season. That was the Falcons’ final game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium until next September, unless they can pull off a late-season comeback to win the NFC South.
Atlanta’s calculus at this point is quite simple: win each of the last two games while taking care of your own business and hoping for some help along the way. Your fate is no longer in your own hands, as this team forfeited that privilege two weeks ago in the stormy terrain of Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
The Chicago Bears, their next opponent, are currently playing their best football of the season. They’ve won three of their previous four games and are still in contention for their own postseason berth, although with the odds stacked totally against them. This is their final home game of the season.
Let’s look at the Falcons’ situation if they beat the Bears in Week 17, as well as the opposite scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
they will keep their NFC South title hopes alive, if the New Orleans Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. The Bucs will clinch the division if they win. A Saints victory would give the Falcons a chance to win the South in Week 18 if the Falcons win in New Orleans and the Bucs lose to Carolina.
If the division is out of the question, Atlanta’s only remaining hope will be the Wildcard race. Unfortunately for them, they are also on the back foot in that race, currently trailing the 6-seed Rams and 7-seed Seahawks by a game but losing the tiebreaker to each due to their lower conference record. Even if the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals next week and Atlanta wins out, both teams will have the same overall and conference record, as Seattle has a better record in games versus common opponents.
As a result, the Falcons will be eliminated from Wildcard contention if both the Seahawks and Rams win this weekend. Combine that with a Buccaneers win, and Atlanta could beat the Bears while still being eliminated from playoff contention.
According to the draft order, the Falcons are currently ranked 10th, the same as they were last week. If the Saints, Raiders, and Broncos all lose this weekend, they will plummet to 14th in the standings, and will at best fall to 11th if the Packers and Vikings (who have identical 7-8 records as Atlanta) also lose.
If the Falcons fail to win,
This will be a straightforward mathematical calculation – they will be eliminated from playoff contention regardless of what else occurs in the league. Every other scoreline may go just as they need it to, but it wouldn’t matter because they couldn’t handle their own affairs.
This will be their sixth consecutive year missing the playoffs, which would be their longest skid since missing the playoffs eight consecutive years from 1983 to 1990. Their current drought is the third-longest in team history.
There appears to be a seesaw effect in Arthur Blank’s choice to keep head coach Arthur Smith for a fourth season. If the Falcons win, that decision will almost certainly be in their favor. A loss this weekend, along with a possible loss in New Orleans in Week 18, would make retention much more difficult to justify.
The Falcons won’t be able to move much higher than their present draft position, but they would at the very least move up to the ninth spot, leapfrogging this Bears club.
Leave a Reply