The most notable roster addition made by the Philadelphia Phillies this summer is the re-signing pitcher Aaron Nola. Since acquiring Bryce Harper in February 2019, Philadelphia has been among the teams that have added big names in past offseasons.
But not every team will see a significant roster shift throughout the offseason—not all teams are run like the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, or New York Yankees. Not every organization has the kind of wealth that Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets, possesses.
At the 2022 Winter Meetings, the Phillies signed Trea Turner, perhaps their biggest offseason addition. Yoshinobu Yamamato was never considered a finalist to sign, which is unfortunate because he would have been an intriguing addition to the Phillies rotation. It was more likely that the phenom would sign with the Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers. Before the year finished, he signed a huge contract with Los Angeles.
Are the Phillies, though, positioned to dethrone their primary rival for the NL East in 2024 given the Atlanta Braves’ roster adjustments via trades and free agency? It is no longer a given that winning the division will lead to postseason success.
The Dodgers have won the NL West nine times in the previous eleven years, but they have failed to win a championship except for the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, when they did win a title. Similar to Los Angeles, the Braves have dominated their division for a number of years, although they have only won one World Series triumph, which came in 2021. The rival Phillies have defeated them in the postseason in back-to-back seasons.
Only one championship was won by the Phillies in 2008, during their previous incredible run from 2007 to 2011 that resulted in five straight postseason appearances and division crowns. Remember that this occurred in the midst of Major League Baseball’s more recent playoff expansion, which went into effect in 2022 and allowed six teams instead of four to advance to the postseason.
In the National League Championship Series, the San Francisco Giants defeated the Philadelphia Phillies. After 34 years, Philadelphia had not had a regular season with 100 or more wins since 1977, which occurred in 2011. But when they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Divisional Series, their season came to an abrupt end. Being the Wild Card club, St. Louis proved that winning a division does not ensure a long postseason run by winning the World Series.
As a wild-card team in the playoffs in 2022 and 2023, the Phillies have experienced success. However, there are advantages to winning the division. Gaining the top spot in the NL East for the first time in 13 years would give them better assurance of a postseason berth. If Philadelphia finished in the top two spots in the National League and advanced to the Fall Classic, they would have additional chances to play in front of their home crowd at Citizens Bank Park.
Even if the Phillies re-signed Nola, one of the best free agents available, do they still need to acquire someone else to improve their chances of winning the NL East in 2024? No, not invariably.
They’ll rely on a core that has been weakened in recent seasons. It was expected that Turner’s signing would be sufficient to win the division and the title. But the shortstop had a difficult first year in Philadelphia, missing a significant chunk of it. The Braves had a strong start to the previous season whereas the team did not.
Unlike their NL East rivals, the Braves started 2023 with an incredible pace. The Phillies should be in a strong position to win the division even if they sign one of the best free agents still available if they can start the season off so strongly or if they don’t struggle at all.
To finish first in their division, Philadelphia’s roster possesses sufficient skill and must perform well, particularly during crucial situations. To win a World Series, they must also accomplish that. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Games 6 or 7 of the NLCS last season, they didn’t do that enough.
On paper, Philadelphia would gain from the signing of Josh Hader, the closer, or another starting pitcher like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Barring an unusually strong season from the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, or Mets, the Phillies and Braves appear to be the NL East winners in 2024. With one of the best lineups in the league right now, Philly should be a strong contender to win the NL East for the first time in more than ten years.
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