Projection systems are favouring the Atlanta Braves and their deep MLB roster. However, the situation is not entirely positive.Atlanta has won 100 or more games in two straight seasons and the National League East for the last six, but their great regular seasons have faded in the postseason, with the Phillies defeating them in the Divisional Series two years in a row.
Is 2024 likely to be different?
FanGraphs’ 2024 postseason forecasts show Atlanta with one of the highest World Series odds numbers in the site’s history, with the Braves having a 24.9% chance of winning the 2024 World Series.
However, that is not a guarantee of winning the Commissioner’s Trophy at the end of the season. The last two teams in the same stratosphere, the 2018 Houston Astros (103 wins) and the 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers (106 wins), were both eliminated in their respective Championship Series rounds.
These two clubs trail Atlanta in the World Series odds, with the Dodgers in second at 16.9% and the Astros in third at 10.8%.
Overall, Atlanta’s regular season projections are high, with the team earning a 98.6% chance of making the playoffs (87.8% of which comes from winning the division). Only Atlanta and Los Angeles have postseason probabilities of more than 90%.
Can Atlanta achieve postseason success in 2024?
FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens, writing in their takeaways article, was quite clear about Atlanta’s place as the undisputed favourite thanks to an offseason focused on increasing their chances of advancing in the postseason:
Yes, the Braves are ridiculous. We believe they are the best club in baseball by a large margin. Obviously, their offence is ridiculous. They set the majors on fire in 2023. However, their pitching should improve this year, thanks to Max Fried’s full season and Chris Sale’s crucial innings. They even improved their bullpen, which is now among the finest in baseball. Last year’s performance was not a fluke; this club is just stacked.
No one else is genuinely competing for first place in the NL East. That is not because the Phillies are terrible; we believe they are more than likely to make the playoffs because to a top-ten offence. However, in the regular season, they are simply not on par with Atlanta. You can tell the Braves agree; their offseason was centred on fixing their lack of dominant postseason pitching. I also appreciate the Marlins/Mets matchup in the heart of the division; we believe both teams will get to.500-ish records in quite different ways.
How will the playoff field look like?
Using FanGraphs’ odds, the postseason field would look like this:
National League American League Braves
East
Yankees
Cardinals
Central
Twins
Dodgers
West
Astros
Phillies
Wild card 1
Mariners
Diamondbacks
Wild card 2
Rays
Padres
Wild card 3
Orioles
How did they get these odds?
FanGraphs calculates these probabilities by taking individual player forecasts, increasing or decreasing at-bats to meet playing time estimates, and then using that information to generate run scoring and run prevention calculations. Using those run counts, FanGraphs replicates the whole season 20,000 times, calculating the chances based on how many times each event occurs in those simulations.
So, Atlanta won the World Series almost 5,000 times out of 20,000 season simulations.
Let’s hope real reality matches how they programmed it.
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