The Detroit Lions will almost certainly add an edge rusher (or two) this summer, and Pro Football Focus has offered an all-in trade.
The Detroit Lions, led by Aidan Hutchinson, had the highest pressure rate in the NFL this season, at 28.2. However, this did not translate into a lot of sacks, as their 41 sacks ranked in the bottom half of the league. Hutchinson had 11.5 and defensive tackle Alim McNeill had 5. However, there was a significant drop-off after that, with no edge rusher other than Hutchinson recording more than two sacks.
If Mathieu Betts stays, he will help bridge the pass rush deficit, but free agents Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara, and Julian Okwara are very certain to leave. So another addition or two is very certainly on the way, either through free agency, trade, or the draft. Or perhaps a combination of those options.
The big issue is whether general manager Brad Holmes will be “all-in” on adding anyone this offseason. The simple answer is that he will not give up valuable draft capital to trade for someone or pay someone a lot of money in free agency. But it’s also reasonable to think Holmes is astute enough to investigate a potential move before dismissing it completely.
Pro Football Focus trade proposal: Lions go all in for a seasoned edge rusher.
Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus has put together a list of “4 NFL trades that could shake up the 2024 offseason.” The third item on the list involves the Lions.
“Khalil Mack, EDGE , LOS ANGELES CHARGERS → DETROIT LIONS”
Trade compensation: a 2025 fourth-round selection.
Contract acquired: One-year, $23.25 million (not guaranteed).
Spielberger did not declare the Lions should absolutely sign Mack, but he did analyze the case from all sides.
“This will be a difficult needle to thread, much like DeAndre Hopkins last offseason, with the Arizona Cardinals eventually having to simply release the veteran wideout despite other clubs’ obvious interest in his talents. That interest, however, comes at a cost in this league, and Mack’s 2024 pay is excessive for a 33-year-old edge defender, especially one coming off a season as successful as Mack’s in 2023.”
“The challenge for Los Angeles will be convincing teams they are trading for the 2023 version of Mack and not what is more likely a player whose median expectation should fall somewhere between his past two seasons.”
“….Detroit and general manager Brad Holmes have done remarkably well to add young talent through the draft and came quite close to a Super Bowl appearance in 2023, and while they don’t want to get too aggressive with a bunch of key in-house extensions on the horizon, picking their spot in adding a savvy veteran difference-maker like Mack could push them over the edge.”
Mack’s “down year” in terms of deeper analytics in 2022 was eight sacks, following a 10-game absence from the previous season due to a foot ailment. However, prior to this season, he had gone four seasons without recording double-digit sacks. He wasn’t as domineering as he had been previously.
The most important aspects of Mack are his age (33 on February 22), his salary in the final year of his deal, and the possibility of a contract extension if he is acquired. As Spielberger pointed out, Mack’s statistical expectations for the following season should fall in between his last two.
With their current cap situation, the Chargers may be willing to accept less than what it appears they could get for Mack, if only because of his name, or they may be compelled to cut him if a trade does not work out.
According to Spielberger’s proposal, a 2025 fourth-round pick would be a reasonable price to pay for a proven edge rusher like Mack. Everything else makes trade for him a doubtful option for the Lions.
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