Alabama had all the anticipation going into the NCAA tournament this spring, but their season ended in the Sweet 16, as have so many other promising campaigns.
Expectations were low this year, especially after a difficult start, but one basketball analyst believes the Tide are exactly where they need to be.
ESPN’s Jay Bilas came on “The Next Round” on Thursday and was effusive in his praise for Alabama. Or, more specifically, the team’s potential.
As Bilas pointed out, the Crimson Tide have a genuinely great offence – they are the #1 team in the country in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom – and a middling defence, ranked 72 by KenPom.
So, why is Bilas so bullish on this one-dimensional team? There is room for improvement.
“What the analytics show you is what a team has accomplished. It doesn’t reveal what a team is capable of,” Bilas explained.
In this situation, Bilas points out that Alabama does not have to be as elite defensively as teams like Auburn or Houston (both ranked in the top five by KenPom), but if the Crimson Tide can improve on the defensive end, the offence is strong enough to carry them deep into the tournament.
“They’re not going to reach that level defensively, but if they trend toward it and are rising as they get to the postseason, they can win this thing,” he said. “They’re good enough.”
Bilas also commended head coach Nate Oats, who has successfully employed analytics to transform the program.
Alabama had a week off from games, with Oats and his colleagues coaches likely preparing their guys for the regular season’s final stretch run, particularly on defence.
Alabama is not an SEC powerhouse in any one defensive category, with the Tide ranking third in the conference in rebounds. But this could be a blessing in disguise, giving Alabama opportunities to improve in areas such as steals (fifth in the conference) and blocks (eighth).
If the Tide improves just a little bit in forcing turnovers and blocking shots, this squad could become a frightening opponent for almost anyone. After all, Alabama already boasts the nation’s finest offence. Combine it with a stronger defence, and you have a contender.
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