While Blake Snell is an unsigned free agent, rumours about him and the Yankees endure. Before changing course and signing Marcus Stroman to a two-year contract last month, the Yanks reportedly made the lefty an offer of five years and $150 million. Since then, there have been rumours that the Yankees are still making an offer to Snell, but, given that they signed Stroman and moved up into the highest tier of the luxury tax penalty in the process, the terms of that offer are probably different. The Yankees and Snell discussed different deal details as recently as Monday, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, so whatever is currently on the table doesn’t seem to be a “take it or leave it” kind of offer.
Interestingly, Heyman reports that agent Scott Boras has floated the idea of a shorter-term agreement that includes opt-out options and larger annual salaries. That would be a change of direction from Snell’s pursuit of the highest guarantees, which has been the case all winter. Furthermore, it’s not a strategy that fits well with the Yankees as a team.
The Yankees are in the highest category of penalties as they have paid the luxury tax three times. At this point, any further expenditure will be subject to 110% taxation. Furthermore, there is no way around the luxury tax by backloading a deal because it is based on the average annual value of a contract. Raising the AAV of the contract, therefore, only makes the Yankees worse off. The problem is not solely with the taxes. In order to sign Snell, who turned down a qualifying offer from the Padres, New York would also have to renounce its fifth and second-round draft picks in addition to $1 million from the international bonus pool for the next season.
It would make more sense to enter into a longer-term agreement that would extend an agreed-upon guarantee while lowering the AAV. A few years ago, when DJ LeMahieu was a free agent and the expectation was that he would sign a four-year contract, the Yankees adopted a similar strategy with him. There’s no sign that this kind of deal is being considered right now, though, and the Yankees would have further concerns if Snell were to sign a longer contract. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon, and Gerrit Cole are already under contract with New York until the 2027 campaign. With Cole, Rodon, and Judge signed through 2028, the Yankees will have $103 million in guaranteed salary on their books for a season that will occur four years from now. Stanton’s 2028 option buyout of $10 million brings the total considerations for that season to $113 million.
Moreover, it is quite probable that they will decide to add an additional year to Cole’s deal during the upcoming summer. The current AL Cy Young winner’s deal features an opt-out after the 24th season, but the Yankees can nullify it by purchasing a $36 million club option for 2029. That would put $76 million on the books for the Yanks as late as 2029; if Snell signs a long-term contract that lowers his average annual value, the team’s commitments may reach or surpass $100 million after the current season. In addition, Cole will be 38 and Judge will be 37 that year. Snell would be 36 years old. If the Yankees are hesitant to commit more than $100 million in guarantees to three players who will be 36 or older in 2029, that would be very understandable.
Heyman also reports that Jordan Montgomery, another lefty and unsigned Boras client whom the Yankees naturally drafted and groomed, is of some interest to the team. Though Montgomery doesn’t have quite the earning potential of a two-time Cy Young winner, Montgomery still has the same financial obstacles as Snell, which the Yankees find more appealing.
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