Who will be coaching the New Orleans Saints in 2024? Could Dennis Allen return after struggling to achieve (let alone maintain) a winning record in either of his two seasons as head coach?
That is not a foregone conclusion, but recent rumours indicate that the Saints are reticent to trade Allen at this time. The latest chatter comes from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, who discussed what he’s hearing with his colleague Dan Graziano.
“I don’t believe the Saints want to replace Dennis Allen, but another losing season would make it two in a row, which was unusual throughout Sean Payton’s tenure. It remains to be seen how much grace New Orleans’ front office and ownership are ready to demonstrate.”
To be honest, it’s strange that the circumstances are being compared; Payton earned his goodwill with a Super Bowl XLIV triumph and a record-breaking run with Drew Brees, assisting the quarterback in not only reinventing himself after a career-threatening injury, but also building a Hall of Fame resume.
Allen repaired Rob Ryan’s shambles of a defence, which was no small task. Then he turned it into an elite unit. That was enough to give general manager Mickey Loomis and team president Dennis Lauscha the confidence to support Gayle Benson’s decision to hire him, despite his historically dismal performance as a head coach with the Raiders a decade prior. But when you look at the Saints’ performance since Allen was named to head coach, there’s no reason to continue with him.
Last year, the Saints, who were obviously plagued by injuries, finished 4-9 after their Week 14 bye. They gave Allen free license to sign Derek Carr, investing $60 million guaranteed in a passer whose previous team let him go and whose free agency experience was mediocre at best. What does Allen have to show for it one year later? The Saints finish Week 14 with a 6-7 record. They’ve improved by only two wins.
There is no valid reason to continue with Allen. His defence — the one he drafted, nurtured, and staffed with senior free agents — is deteriorating by the week. This season, the team’s apparent strength has surrendered the fifth most rushing yards and tied for the third fewest sacks in the NFL. They are unable to stop the run or rush the passer. Allen’s offence is still struggling to score points, with Carr worrying in the red zone and rookie kicker Blake Grupe missing 29-yard field goals. Visiting fans have taken over the lower bowl of the Caesars Superdome, and Carr is being booed anytime he jogs off the field after each unsuccessful drive. Even after a huge (but unconvincing) victory over a division opponent last Sunday, the team is in horrible shape.
So we have two reasons why the Saints should keep Allen. In the first scenario, they outlast their NFC South rivals and win the division, earning a home playoff game (presumably against a Super Bowl contender like the Dallas Cowboys), which is unlikely to go well. It will also take their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft away from the greatest prospects, which could be disastrous since Loomis’ poor trades lost them their second-, third-, and fourth-round picks. But, Loomis may add, they did make the playoffs after missing out previous year. And that is tangible development.
What if the Saints miss the playoffs but keep Allen? That’s when the excuses may start to flow: injuries to great players like Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore (as they were last year), as well as Carr, who is fighting through a sprained throwing shoulder, three injured ribs, and two concussions. That’s an easy way to excuse his bad performance this season.
The Saints had the league’s healthiest squad through the first ten weeks and were still 5-5 before the injuries. However, if the team leadership group has seen Allen’s squad deteriorate week after week and discover new ways to lose football games until mid-December, Benson, Loomis, and Lauscha are unlikely to acknowledge that critique in January. It would take something extreme to persuade them that hiring Allen and committing more strongly to his vision for the team was the wrong decision.
Allen is two years into a four-year contract. Carr’s strongest assurances run until 2024. Perhaps the plan has always been to give Allen two years with his quarterback to see if he can make something happen before launching a reboot in 2025 (perhaps without Loomis, the NFL’s longest-tenured general manager) once the salary cap has skyrocketed, wiping out years of financial manoeuvring and cost deferments. All fans can do is wait and see how things play out, and hope the team delivers a product worth cheering for.
Leave a Reply