It did not have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins’ pitching excellence from the starting rotation may have extended over into 2023. However, due to ownership’s lack of interest in the squad, the starting lineup now bears the brunt of the responsibility.
Fans were ecstatic as the 2023 Minnesota Twins wrapped up their season with a postseason series sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays and a hard-fought elimination at the hands of the Houston Astros. The group had achieved heights it hadn’t seen in decades, and 2024 had potential.
Reinforcing that promise did not have to entail handing Sonny Grey a large contract or keeping Kenta Maeda. In some ways, however, their output had to be accounted for. Leaning on Chris Paddack to throw 140-plus quality innings seemed like a pipe dream, and giving someone of Anthony DeSclafani’s calibre an undisputed rotation slot was impossible. However, the ownership group chose this rotation course, and it is now up to the lineup to pick up the load.
When Derek Falvey confirmed the Twins’ injuries for the season on Monday, the hits kept coming. DeSclafani has been behind throughout camp, but with a visit to a surgeon on the horizon, pitching at all is a serious possibility. Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar are out, removing two key arms from what should be one of baseball’s top bullpens. Matt Canterino’s re-injury was merely the cherry on top.
With fewer than two weeks until Opening Day in Kansas City, Rocco Baldelli must turn to Louie Varland as his fifth starter. He’s been excellent this spring and is arguably a better option than DeSclafani, but his depth is already in use. The bullpen loses two high-leverage arms, and a club that was expected to cover more innings than last year is suddenly thinner than it should be.
Enter a vital clear bill of health for Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and every other regular who surrounds them. It’s nice that the men in the lineup have been on point every day this spring, but this must continue in the coming weeks and months if Minnesota is to disguise some of the challenges they’ll now face on the mound.
In 2023, the Twins rotation had the fifth-lowest ERA in baseball and the fourth-highest fWAR. They avoided investing money on that group, even with crucial departures, and instead focused resources on the bullpen. Minnesota’s wRC+ was sixth in baseball, and their offensive fWAR was worth the tenth most. These performances are acceptable, but they were boosted significantly by a second-half stretch in which they finished in the top three.
Beyond the front office’s limited resources this offseason, it’s evident that the blueprint was designed with the expectation that regular contributors would be back to normal. Despite his late-season heroics, Lewis appeared in only 58 games. Correa fought plantar fasciitis all season, and Buxton never felt normal. Those things are currently in the rearview mirror, but the group believes and hopes that they will remain so.
It’s almost ridiculous that the Twins didn’t sign another quality pitcher to bolster their rotation. If they find themselves in contention, they will most likely add to their roster through a summer deal. Not having to thread that needle by putting undue strain on the lineup every day could also have been part of the strategy.
Now that he has delved into pitching depth, Baldelli must pull the correct strings each time he designs his lineup card, and those pencilled in must deliver.
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