The fact that Bo Nix was the sixth quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft is irrelevant.
You will hear it a lot in the next weeks. QB6! How could they choose QB6 when their best defensive player on the board was available? When was tight end wonder Brock Bowers still available?
First, forget about QB6. The 2024 class is different. Deeper in the most crucial position. QB6 went 127 picks into the draft last year, but only 12 this year.
Not all years are created equally.
That leads us to the second point: next year’s QB class does not appear to be as robust as the 2024 batch. When the presumed top quarterback in the class, Shedeur Sanders, has only played for his father since high school, there is ample reason to be cautious before embracing the top passers in the class.
The time to strike was now.
And the Broncos had a reasonable selection — enough to choose their man and a credible prospect from a board that included six first-round quarterbacks.
The chances of seeing so many prospects at the game’s most vital position next year were slim. The fact that they were able to get a guy they valued — and who appears to be a great match for Sean Payton — without losing draft capital was a plus.
The Broncos waited and wondered for a while.
That’s not to say the Broncos weren’t anxious, especially after the Atlanta Falcons shocked the league by selecting Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8.
The second quarterback run, following the draft’s 1-2-3 passing opening, was officially underway.
“We were discussing a few moves, and then Atlanta signed Penix, and it was like, ‘Holy cow. “Do we need to go up?” Payton stated.
Two picks later, the Vikings — perhaps believing the Broncos were plotting to get J.J. McCarthy — moved up one spot to take the Michigan quarterback.
“When Minnesota leaped, we said, ‘Oh, boy. “Okay,” general manager George Paton replied.
The gap from QB6 to QB7 in the draft is a gulf. Which meant that after the Vikings took McCarthy at No. 10, another team could have jumped them to No. 11. However, after trading down one position, the Jets decided not to move forward.
The Broncos had chances to trade down. But with the Raiders sniffing around quarterbacks at No. 13 and reported interest from teams like the Los Angeles Rams in Bo Nix, they weren’t in a mood to get cute.
“We took calls from teams ahead of us. Never really got too serious,” Paton said. “We considered moving back. But once Penix went, it got a little stressful there at the end. You had the Raiders behind us. And so, we just didn’t want to overthink it. This was our guy. We’re going to take our guy.
“But we did think about it. Not too far. We could have moved a couple of picks back and maybe got some picks, but at the end of the day, this was our guy. Let’s just take him. Let’s not overthink it.
“We would have been sick if we lost him just for a couple of fifth-round picks or what have you.”
THE POSITION VALUE AT AN AREA OF CRYING NEED MEANT TAKING BO NIX WAS NECESSARY
They didn’t force the pick of Bo Nix. This wasn’t an example of selecting a player they kind of like. He was higher on their board than the “QB6” status in the draft class would dictate. And their board is all that matters.
So, at No. 12 they got a prospect they cherished at a position group that was objectively the worst in the NFL coming into Thursday night.
“Early into the process, shortly after these workouts, he stood out in a lot of areas,” Payton said. “You pay close attention to all the film study and obviously he’s played a lot of football, but sack differential, turnover differential, accuracy, third-down passing, first, firstm first, first in his class, first in end of half, first in end-of-game two-minute situations, second in red zone.
“… And then let’s do another passing statistic and let’s remove a lot of the short, underneath throws, and obviously, that’s part of what they do offensively and you remove that and you come back with the analytics and it’s still first. But I would say his harm strength was — we saw it in the Pro Day, but then even in the private workout was very good. And he’s super smart.”
Smart, accurate and a good processor. All the things Payton craves.
Now, that league-worst position group has a chance to improve drastically in a short time, depending on how quickly Nix adapts.
Yes, history would say that somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 percent of the quarterbacks selected in Round 1 will not work out. The 2015-22 sample size includes 25 quarterbacks, and 13 of them — 52 percent — became legitimate franchise quarterbacks, although one of them — 2016 No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz — reached that point and then flamed out spectacularly in his final three seasons with Philadelphia, to the point where he is now a backup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
But to hit on a quarterback is to change the outlook of a franchise. And for five years, to have a cost-controlled asset at the sport’s priciest position.
If Nix makes the progress in the next nine months that one should reasonably expect, the Broncos will be able to attack next year’s offseason with a contract worth pennies on the dollar and resources to pour into a supporting cast. They might have one of the highest-paid offensive lines in football if they re-sign Quinn Meinerz, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
The months and years to come will reveal the extent of Nix’s abilities.
But at No. 12 in a deep quarterback class, the risk-reward ratio was right. The Broncos took the chance at which they blanched in previous drafts since the scalding experience of trading up to select Paxton Lynch in 2016.
Payton and Paton had a night that was equal parts bold and prudent.
They got their quarterback. They didn’t surrender their future to do it.
Their direction and plan are clear. There appears to be alignment. And if it succeeds, no one will care that Nix was the sixth quarterback taken.
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