The Minnesota Twins are riding a 12-game winning streak into Sunday’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox, but to keep it going, they’ll likely have to face the heart of the Seattle Mariners’ pitching staff next week.
The Mariners will visit Target Field for a four-game series beginning Monday night, with expected starters Luis Castillo, Emerson Hancock, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert.
Seattle’s starting rotation enters this week’s series with the majors’ fourth-lowest average allowed (.211), third-lowest earned-run average (3.02), and lowest WHIP (1.02), and the Twins have a difficult challenge in each battle.
Monday: Luis Castillo vs. Simeon Woods. Richardson
Castillo, a three-time All-Star, has had a solid start to the season, going 3-4 with a 3.46 ERA. This season, Castillo has a 4.7% walk rate (88th percentile among starters) and a 28.7% strikeout rate (80th percentile), but the Twins will face the most difficult battle from his 32.7% chase rate (82nd percentile).
Woods Richardson will face Castillo and has been reliable for the Twins since moving to the fifth slot in the rotation. Woods Richardson allowed one run on two hits, a walk, and five strikeouts in his season debut on April 13 against the Detroit Tigers, but has allowed three runs on 14 hits, three walks, and eight strikeouts in his last two starts totaling 8 2/3 innings worked.
Tuesday: Emerson Hancock vs. Bailey Ober.
Hancock, a high prospect in the Mariners organization after being taken sixth overall in the 2020 MLB draft, has broken into Seattle’s rotation, finishing 3-3 with a 4.75 ERA.
Hancock has struggled to limit strong contact, so this could be an opportunity for the Twins. Hancock has allowed 47.9% of hard hits (ninth percentile) this season, despite a decrease in average exit velocity from 89.2 mph to 87.8 mph.
Hancock will face Ober, who has rebounded from a rocky start to become one of the Twins’ top starters. Ober has gone 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his previous four starts, limiting opposing hitters to a.136/.193/.222 line.
Wednesday: Chris Paddack vs. George Kirby.
Kirby has grown into one of the game’s best starters since his first All-Star selection last season. Kirby went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA last year and is now 3-2 with a 3.76 ERA this year.
Kirby has a 2.6% walk rate (98th percentile), but he also does not allow hard contact, with a 30% hard-hit rate (87th percentile) and an exit velocity of 87.5 mph (71st percentile).
The Twins will respond with Paddack, who had his finest start of the season on Friday, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out six in six shutout innings.
Thursday: Logan Gilbert vs. Pablo López.
Gilbert faces López on Thursday in what could be the finest matchup of the series. Gilbert is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA this season, and his analytics support that with the greatest pitching run value in the majors this season, +13.
Gilbert’s progress has resulted from the addition of a cutter, which hitters are hitting.167 against this season, although the right-hander normally does not walk batters, with a 4.7% walk rate last year.
Gilbert’s 7.3% walk rate this year is a career high, which may open the door for López. López was concerned when his velocity decreased in outings against the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels, but he rallied to give one run on five hits and a walk while striking out eight in Saturday’s 3-1 victory over the Red Sox.
If both pitchers are on their game, it might make for an interesting series finale.
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