The New York Yankees have gotten off to a good start in 2024. The Yankees are comfortably second in the American League with a 25-14 record, and their offence has transformed into a well-oiled machine that continues to produce runs with the best of them, currently ranking third in the league in home runs (51), fifth in OPS (.748), and sixth in runs (188).
Despite recently acquired superstar outfielder Juan Soto being at the forefront of the Yankees’ offensive productivity this season, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, Anthony Rizzo, and Oswaldo Cabrera have all outperformed expectations.
However, one Yankee who many expected to dominate with Soto but has yet to do so is Aaron Judge. In 100 at-bats in April, Judge hit.220 with a.361 OPB, 6 home runs, and 17 RBIs. Judge, who is currently second on the Yankees in strikeouts (46), hasn’t looked like the offensive threat this crowd and team has come to expect, raising concerns about his future performance.
In case some of you forgot, Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million contract in 2023, with a base income of $40 million each year. And, after a calmer season last year following his record-breaking performance in 2022, it’s understandable that some are concerned about the 32-year-old, who many expected to have a lot better start than he has so far.
Ultimately, this raises two major questions: The first question is, should fans be concerned about Judge’s production? The second question is, what can Judge do to rebound as the season progresses? If these questions pique your interest as much as they did ours, here’s our breakdown of what we see happening with Aaron Judge moving ahead.
Will Judge improve?
The answer is yes, and he has since April. The greatest question in this first question is how much Judge will improve. Judge has played in the MLB for more than eight seasons (including a 27-game rookie start in 2016). During that period, fans and analysts alike witnessed his ability to produce a high volume of base hits, whether or not they resulted in home runs.
Judge had a stellar.311 batting average during his record-breaking season in 2022. Even before that, Judge hit.287 in 2021,.278 in 2018, and.284 after his spectacular AL Rookie of the Year campaign in 2017. Though the usual rule of thumb in baseball is not to obsess over batting average, Judge has never been known to let his hitting drop to such an extent, even as a power hitter.
The good news is that Judge has done his studies and worked hard to get himself out of this temporary funk. So far in May, Judge has a.357 average, a.455 OPB, ten hits, three home runs, and seven RBIs. That’s a good sign given how he struggled early in April. However, Judge’s success is built on longevity, and once he gets going, little can stop him.
By the All-Star break, we should expect Judge to be back in form, with a batting average over.260 and a 20-60+ HR to RBI ratio to marvel at.
What does Judge need to do to get better?
Judge isn’t in much of a slump here and has done well thus far in May. However, he is now battling with a number of critical facets of his hitting, which if improved would allow him to dominate through the All-Star break and beyond.
The first and most important thing to realize about Judge’s hitting is that he dominates fastball pitches. However, Judge has struggled to smash breaking and off-speed pitches this season. In fact, Judge’s hitting average against breaking pitches in 65 plate appearances is.182, compared to a.200 average versus off-speed pitches in 12 plate appearances.
As a result, his batting average against sliders, curveballs, and changeups is.200 or worse, which isn’t a prescription for long-term success in a league dominated by breaking and off-speed pitches. To develop, Judge must concentrate on his pitch reads and discipline himself to stay back on these types of pitches, which he frequently makes early on.
Furthermore, Judge’s barrel % this year is much lower than his previous two seasons, which must improve (even for contact purposes). Judge’s barrel percentage in 2022 was 26.5, compared to 27.5 the previous year. In 38 games this season, Judge has a 16.7-barrel percentage, which reduces his exit velocity and launch angle.
Finally, Judge needs to be a little more aggressive at the plate, and for several reasons. To begin with, he’s not taking enough first-pitch swings, which is when pitchers tend to make mistakes with heaters or pitches down the plate. Last season, Judge’s first pitch swing % was 33.0; this year, he’s only swinging at first pitches 29.4 percent of the time, which doesn’t help his cause.
Second, Judge has done an excellent job of abstaining from chasing pitches, especially those that are very near to or barely within the strike zone. However, leaving it up to the umpires has cost him some unpleasant strikeouts. It is critical that Judge does not make the strike zone any larger than it needs to be. However, if he wants to improve his strikeout rate and his hitting, Judge will need to go after some of those pitches just outside the strike zone, especially while dealing with umpires who will call anything close.
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