Recent developments following the Gateway race highlight a concerning disparity. As of now, NASCAR has negated all 17 of Kyle Larson’s playoff points earned in the thirteen regular-season races preceding his tragic no-show at the Coca-Cola 600. Some see this as NASCAR’s implicit rejection of the #5 driver’s chances at winning his second Cup Series championship. Others support the still-unconfirmed “decision,” advocating for greater adherence to a regulation that appears to be bent more frequently than not. However, all of the attention focused on the one person who is genuinely affected by this hotly debated topic—Kyle Larson.
As Jordan Bianchi correctly mentioned previously, Larson may even dethrone his 6-time MPD teammate Chase Elliott to “win most popular driver this year.” That raises an interesting question: would Larson’s sizable fan base replicate the famed “Chase Elliott effect” of 2023, given his presumed absence from the current playoff picture?
Kyle Larson vs. NASCAR: A Growing Fan Rebellion
Simply defined, the Chase Elliott effect is a potential viewership drop caused by Larson’s #9 teammate’s absence on a race weekend. Last year, the 2020 Cup champion missed six races due to a fractured tibia sustained in a strange snowboarding mishap. This year, nearly every race Elliott missed in 2023 had a significant increase in viewership. According to Adam Stern of SBJ, numbers for Bristol’s 2024 return to concrete (where the 6x MPD hit the top ten for the first time this season) increased by 10% over the previous year.
Similarly, after Kyle Larson completed the first leg of his rain-delayed Double Duty at the Brickyard to finish P18, reports indicated an 8% rise in audience numbers. Furthermore, 2% fewer viewers tuned in than last year for the 2024 Coca-Cola 600, which was rained out and Larson was unable to complete a single lap due to Mother Nature. His deliberate decision is comparable to that of his teammate number nine. They both requested a waiver upon their separate recoveries, and their absence had a considerable negative impact on the ratings. NASCAR granted Elliott a waiver to finish 17th in the points standings. However, the sanctioning body’s muted response to Larson’s unusual circumstance has sparked some intriguing speculation on The Teardown between Jordan Bianchi and his podcast colleague Jeff Gluck.
The latter explained, “Throughout the playoffs, people will look at this and say, ‘Well, Larson would have been in the final four, Larson would have been running for the championship.'” So your entire postseason run will be dominated by this never-ending argument that began on a dreary May afternoon.” He justified his statement further by citing the countless number of Larson fans irritated online by the latest developments on the points table: “You’re also going to have a lot of angry, angry people who are, you can already see them on social media, saying, ‘I’m not going to watch NASCAR for the rest of the year.'” “I am not going to buy tickets.”
Bianchi, on the other hand, disagreed with his colleague’s point of view, stating that “there will always be people” within the NASCAR community who do not complete tasks. Gluck responded with a comparison that clarified his original thought: “Look at the Chase Elliott effect, which we just saw last year when Chase Elliott was out of the races due to a broken leg. People didn’t watch. Larson is quickly becoming one of America’s most popular drivers. If he is not allowed to play in the playoffs, you will essentially be martyring Kyle Larson. “He will become this figure of like, you know, the man is holding him down…”
Gluck’s predictions could come true, with a slew of new fans drawn to Kyle Larson’s prowess on the track and soft-spoken nature off it. Nonetheless, his waiver situation remains unresolved after a P10 recovery against Gateway. And it looks that a prospective verdict for Larson may need a revision of the regulations and the entire NASCAR spectrum in general.
Will NASCAR alter the rules anytime soon?
During post-race interviews with Fs1, Larson expressed his thoughts on his recent misfortunes: “I think NASCAR is probably trying to figure out if I get a waiver, do they have to rewrite the rule …” I honestly don’t care. I am here to race. “I’ll be here every weekend.” Larson has two victories and three podiums in his fourteen previous points-paying races, with the exception of last weekend’s race at Charlotte. He even led current points leader Denny Hamlin in the drivers’ standings before failing to perform on one weekend, when NASCAR pulled the plug 149 laps early in the rain-delayed Coca-Cola 600.
Gluck aptly described the growing dissatisfaction generated by these perplexing scenarios when he remarked, “You’re talking about how this man is having maybe the best season of everyone and isn’t going to make the playoffs. “Good luck explaining that one to your new Netflix audience…”
But NASCAR faces an even worse impasse in the owners’ standings, which are once again topped by the #5 team. This gives Larson a further incentive to go for every single point, as evidenced by a tangential discussion with FOX about Kyle Busch’s spin late in Stage 2. Larson responded to RCR’s #8 driver’s sarcasm about what a “single point” meant for him, stating that every point is crucial for everyone in the field. We’re aiming to win the regular season championship, and 15 bonus points go a long way. So, absolutely, each point was crucial.”
Although “the number five car in owner points is still the points leader,” as Gluck says, the drama surrounding their chances of competing in the basic playoffs is going on longer than necessary, simply because NASCAR refuses to make a judgment. Will the sanctioning body make any quick decisions soon? We must first wait for the next exciting stock car weekend in Sonoma, California.
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