The NASCAR Cup Series returns to its second road course of the 2024 season, this time at the repaved Sonoma Raceway.
The Sonoma repave resulted in a slightly different collection of drivers near the top of the time sheet, with Joey Logano taking pole and Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney finishing third. Blaney was also the fastest in practice, with Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain leading the five- and 10-lap averages.
In qualifying, all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers, as well as both Trackhouse Racing cars, finished in the top 10.
With playoff ramifications for numerous drivers, as well as stage and playoff points on the line, we could see a variety of on-track methods that can inform our DFS strategy.
Before we go into my picks, keep in mind that all of my NASCAR projections can be found in FantasyLabs’ NASCAR Models, which include floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not forget the greatest part: my Perfect% metric, which tells you how frequently specific racers emerge in the optimal lineup after 10,000 race simulations.
Don’t forget about FantasyLabs’ tools, such as our Lineup Optimizer, which can easily generate up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder, which allows you to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS selections for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.
Sonoma DraftKings Cash Game Strategy
Joey Logano’s
stage plan becomes critical as he seeks either a victory or significant stage points. In any case, he’s considerably more likely to tumble backward than to remain at the top, so we’ll pass on the polesitter here.
Instead, I believe we require a significant dose of place differential and finishing position possibility, which for me begins with Ross Chastain ($8300). Chastain is priced lower than other top possibilities, but as I previously stated, he posted the best 10-lap average in practice and starts in ninth place, giving him enough place-differential potential to warrant a cash-game slot. Chastain has finished in the top ten in each of his last three Sonoma races, so expect him to do the same again.
Chris Buescher
($8600) posted the fourth-best overall lap average in practice but will start 26th, putting him in position for a strong finish. Buescher has the best average finish among all drivers at road courses in the Next Gen era, and he is also in a position where he is unlikely to score early stage points, so pursuing the optimal strategy and vying for a win is his best chance to improve his playoff chances as the current last driver in the playoffs. Being on the optimal approach is critical for having the best chance of a strong finish.
Denny Hamlin ($9200) had a nice long-run vehicle based on his fourth-best 10-lap average, and he comes in as the driver with the highest Perfect% score in my model, so I believe he’s a lock for cash games with a 25th-place starting position.
Sonoma DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy.
I believe we should have a big amount of Kyle Larson ($10,000), Tyler Reddick ($9500), and Chase Elliott ($9300), as each of these drivers is capable of winning given their practice speed, road-course experience, and starting position. However, because all three begin in the top five, it’s a wise decision to assign them negative correlation, as it will be difficult for more than one of these drivers to wind up in the optimal lineup with so many solid place-differential alternatives available.
I also like Ty Gibbs ($9000), who dominated the Xfinity Series race on Saturday and had excellent practice speeds. Gibbs excels at road courses and does not require stage points. As a result, with him unlikely to win a stage since the drivers in the trio above are more likely to win Stages 1 and 2, I can see him pursuing the best plan to win the race and earn five playoff points.
Make a note of Will Brown’s ($7200) status leading up to the race. He stated that the vehicle appeared to be on 75% power throughout qualifying, and if that isn’t resolved, he may be a good fade. However, if it is found out, Brown was third quickest in practice and comes in at a reasonable price.
Because place differential is the name of the game, I can see Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek grabbing too much usage, leaving fellow $6k and lower-cost drivers who also start in the 30s (Daniel Hemric, Ricky Stenhouse, Josh Berry, and Ryan Preece) under-rostered. My model gives each driver a 12-14% chance of being in the optimal lineup, so we should expect at least one of them to be there half of the time, but all four forecast to be on less than 10% of rosters.
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