Prior to Tuesday’s deadline, the Astros are emphasizing starting pitchers. They appear to be casting a wide net in search of at least a mid-rotation arm.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported Thursday morning that the Astros are among the teams interested in Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of several arms on their radar.
According to Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports, the Astros and Cardinals are among ten teams contacting the White Sox about Erick Fedde. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to reveal the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. According to Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal, and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic, the Astros are also interested in Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who grew up in Houston.
Both pitchers have performed as No. 3 starters this season. Fedde would command a larger prospect package due to his affordability. Fedde, a former first-round pick of the Nationals, never developed into more than a backup pitcher in Washington. He changed his pitching mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After winning the KBO MVP title, he signed a two-year, $15 million free agent contract with the White Sox.
It is the most successful move in Chris Getz’s general manager tenure thus far. Fedde’s abilities have contributed to his success against major league batters. He has a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per outing and has had no trouble turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is about league average, and his 6.6% walk rate is high. Fedde has the swing-and-miss ability of colleague Garrett Crochet, but he has been a valuable source of above-average innings.
Fedde is a relatively inexpensive signing. He earns $7.5 million this season and will match that amount in 2025. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Sox are informing prospective teams that they are willing to keep Fedde through next season providing clubs do not overwhelm them with a trade package. It would be a great surprise if the 31-year-old was still wearing the White Sox uniform by Wednesday.
There is no realistic path for the Sox to return to contention by next season, and Fedde’s trade value is unlikely to increase from where it is now, when he is pitching at a career-best level and has a year and a half of inexpensive control.
Taillon’s production has been extremely similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA in 100 1/3 innings. He strikes out 19.1% of batters, while walking only 5.1%. It’s a nice turnaround after a home run spike caused Taillon to give nearly five earned runs per nine innings in his debut season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball velocity has decreased slightly to a career-low 92.5 mph. That’s concerning, but it hasn’t stopped him from doing well this year.
Fedde is the more tempting trading chip because to the variations in their contracts. Taillon inked a four-year, $68 million deal with the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason. He is paid $18 million and will receive a corresponding annual salary in 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is far lower than what he would receive on the free market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned with dumping the later half of that contract, they would not receive a significant prospect return
Houston has rallied to reclaim first place in the American League West from the struggling Mariners. They’ve put themselves in a position to buy, validating a front office that has frequently stated that they will do so, and now need to strengthen the rotation. Houston is starting rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss with limited success.
They want to switch to a six-man rotation to relieve load on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco. Houston hopes to have Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a smooth rehabilitation process.
Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are out for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has had many setbacks while rehabbing a flexor issue. If everyone is healthy, adding another starter may force one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.
The Astros don’t have many assets to trade. Aggressive trades, late-round picks, and the consequences from the sign-stealing punishment have shrunk the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the sole Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organization lacks depth.
That’s not to say they can’t include rotation assistance. Melton might be a fascinating headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti, and outfielder Joey Loperfido are intriguing secondary options. However, Houston does not have the same prospect stockpile as many other teams looking for rotation help.
One method to compensate for the subpar farm system is to take a pay. That is especially true for a talent like Taillon. However, Houston has already reached an organizational high in terms of player spending. They will pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.
RosterResource estimates their CBT at roughly $256 million. Any significant deadline pickup will drive them above the $257 million barrier and into the second tier of penalization. That isn’t much of an impediment on its own, but it includes a 32% tax on future spending. Houston is already paying a 20% tax for the first $20 million beyond the $237 million base threshold. It’s unclear how far owner Jim Crane is willing to stretch.
To that end, The Athletic reports that the Astros are attempting to move Rafael Montero i
n trade packages. Montero was re-signed by Houston in the early offseason of 2022-23 for three years and $34.5 million. (This occurred while Crane was having an outsized role in baseball operations following the sacking of former GM James Click and before Houston hired Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven to be a horrible decision.
Montero had a 5.08 ERA in 67 1/3 innings last season. While this season’s 4.58 is slightly better, Montero’s strikeout rate has dropped to 14.6%. Montero has allowed 12 runs in 13 2/3 innings since the beginning of June.
He’s walked nine batters and given up four home runs in that time, while striking out only eight. Manager Joe Espada has little alternative but to restrict the experienced reliever to low-leverage situations.
Clearly, Montero’s deal is significantly underwater. He earns $11.5 million this year and next. Other teams will not be interested in taking any of that until the Astros return an unfavourable deal or increase the prospect capital in the offer.
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