Despite the uncertainties surrounding the trade deadline, one thing has been plainly evident for some time: the Detroit Tigers will move Jack Flaherty before the deadline. Given how the market has developed in recent days, it is almost clear that the Tigers will earn more than they would receive if they extended a qualifying offer to Flaherty at the end of the season. Passing up that kind of opportunity, given how the season has gone, seems quite imprudent.
Predicting WHERE Flaherty will wind up is a little difficult. The vast majority of purchasers this year would prefer to increase rotation depth, and rentals like Flaherty are often in hot demand this time of year. On Monday, it appeared that the Yankees were close to a deal for Flaherty, but that buzz subsided as the day progressed.
Detroit’s refusal to pay a fair price may be the source of Flaherty’s Tigers’ woes. According to reports from The Athletic and others, the Astros reached in on Flaherty over the weekend, but nothing transpired. They must have found the asking price so excessive that they decided to overpay for Yusei Kikuchi instead.
The Detroit Tigers may be overplaying their hand in Jack Flaherty’s trade market.
There is a lot to process here. If the Tigers’ asking price was actually higher than what Houston paid for Kikuchi, Scott Harris and his team should be held accountable. Flaherty is having a terrific season, but he should not be paid anywhere like that amount as a rental arm. Now, if Detroit’s asking price for a rental is high but not prohibitively high, and the Astros just prefer to explore the market for pitchers with additional team control, then is a different story entirely. However, they were enticed along the way to trade numerous high-end prospects for another rental in Kikuchi, so the strategy went haywire in either case, leaving the Tigers holding the bag. Perhaps the Astros know something about the names they sacrificed that James Click does not.
Only the Tigers know what offers are on the table from other teams, and considering the high price tags at this year’s trade deadline, we can probably presume Flaherty is commanding a premium right now. Another factor is that Detroit may be waiting for a bidding war closer to the real deadline later on Tuesday, when contenders have fewer options to pick from.
That is OK, but the Tigers are playing a risky game if “waiting for a team to get desperate” is their strategy here. The Astros had already been regarded desperate for their Kikuchi package, which may have stalled the market.
True, the deadline generates urgency for playoff teams looking to upgrade their rosters, but the number of buyers will drop as the hours pass. There is a genuine probability that Detroit will have to accept a lower offer since other possible buyers spent their prospect capital elsewhere rather than trying to reach an expensive asking price for Flaherty.
The Tigers are still likely to receive a satisfactory trade package for Flaherty. that’s unclear whether that will be the best package they could have obtained.
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