Darnold is on a one-year, $10 million contract and is expected to receive a large increase in free agency. There are calls for the Vikings to consider keeping him.
However, The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia cautions against committing the “Daniel Jones mistake.”
“First, we must look at how the Vikings have gotten to 11-2,” Kapadia wrote on December 10. “The defence hasn’t been as good as it was earlier in the season, but it remains rated top in DVOA. Meanwhile, the offence is ranked fourteenth. You don’t need to look any further to determine which side of the ball is this team’s strength. We can also focus on Darnold’s individual performance. He ranks eleventh in success rate and twelveth in EPA per pass play.
“Prior to this season, Darnold had been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL for the previous six years. Is it more plausible that Darnold has suddenly evolved into a different person, or that the Vikings’ situation would allow many quarterbacks to thrive? While Darnold has obviously progressed, I still believe it is the latter.”
Darnold started the season well, but had a tough patch in Weeks 8 and 9, tossing 5 interceptions to 3 touchdowns. The Vikings quarterback has since rebounded, tossing for 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions from Week 11 to Week 14.
Still, Kapadia’s “bet” is that the Vikings feel the same way, which is why Jones’ predicament with his old team, the New York Giants, is instructive.
Sam Darnold is expected to command $37 to $40 million for his next contract in free agency.
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