Christian Walker has been a popular free agent target this winter, attracting interest from not only the Diamondbacks but also the Yankees, Mariners, Astros, and Nationals, among other teams. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that interested teams have been loath to extend offers beyond three years, although Walker’s camp “would love to get a fourth year.”
Widespread interest in Walker is only natural. For numerous seasons, he has been one of the sport’s most underestimated performers. The 33-year-old slugger’s 2024 batting line of.251/.335/.468 is nearly identical to the wider.Since 2019, he has a 253/.332/.464 batting line in roughly 3200 plate appearances. At the time, it seemed absurd to believe that the Diamondbacks could successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did so and has been richly rewarded.
Walker has not only been consistently effective at the plate (13% better than average overall, 20% better over the last three seasons), but he has also established as one of the game’s top defensive players at his position. Walker has earned three consecutive Gold Gloves for his performance at first base. Walker’s 33 defensive runs saved over the last three seasons lead all major league first basemen by a significant margin. Matt Olson ranks second at 27. Statcast is even more optimistic, giving Walker 39 Outs Above Average, nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He has only made eight errors since 2022.
Walker has been quietly terrific, but a four-year contract is a tall expectation given his age. He will turn 34 in March. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the last decade have signed four-year contracts beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92 million with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56 million with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57 million with the Mariners), and Victor Martinez (four years, $68 million with the Tigers). Donaldson’s contract, which is nearly five years old, is the most current of the bunch. Cruz’s contract was the only one that worked out well.
To put it simply, four years would break any recent record for a position player of this age. Speculatively, he could take the same approach that other veterans have taken in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term contracts: toss in (in this case) the fourth year at a discounted cost. Walker is expected to earn around $20 million per year. If he added a fourth year for $8-10 million, he’d earn his fourth season while also lowering the signing club’s luxury-tax cost. Many of Walker’s reported suitors will be unaffected because they do not pay CBT. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it might be important.
Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons why the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Others include the qualifying offer, which would cost them two more draft picks (after already giving Max Fried two), as well as the wealth of possibilities available on the free agent (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade markets (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).
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