Tylor Megill has shown signs of promise throughout his up-and-down four seasons with the New York Mets. Following a great performance in 2024, Megill appeared on some MLB experts’ radar screens as a potential breakout talent this season.
Still, Megill arrived at spring training in the same position as the previous four seasons: without a guaranteed job and competing for a rotation slot. However, due to injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Megill got that slot, and the 29-year-old has taken advantage of it. Megill has won both of his starts this season, allowing only five hits and one run over 10.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and four walks.
In a “Buy or Sell” column for Bleacher Report, Joe Reuter writes that the 6-foot-7 right-hander has quietly provided the Mets with four years of consistent depth, totaling 67 starts and 341.1 innings while posting a 4.56 ERA. Reuter adds that, while not a frontline option, Megill is a reliable piece, capable of delivering passable, league-average performance when needed, but emphasizes that “a few months shy of his 30th birthday and with the same repertoire as in years past, a true breakout still feels unlikely.”
However, there is no disputing Megill’s impact early in the season.
In a “Buy or Sell” column for Bleacher Report, Joe Reuter writes that the 6-foot-7 right-hander has quietly provided the Mets with four years of consistent depth, totaling 67 starts and 341.1 innings while posting a 4.56 ERA. Reuter adds that, while not a frontline option, Megill is a reliable piece, capable of delivering passable, league-average performance when needed, but emphasizes that “a few months shy of his 30th birthday and with the same repertoire as in years past, a true breakout still feels unlikely.”
However, there is no disputing Megill’s impact early in the season.
The Rising Apple, a Mets-related news site linked with FanSided, examined Megill’s improvements during the 2024 season, examining his statistics to justify a potential breakout.
In 2024, Megill pitched 78 innings, finishing with a 4.04 ERA and an even more promising 3.55 FIP. While his 9.5% walk rate was significantly higher than normal, he had a career-high 27% strikeout rate. Even more encouraging: for the first time in MLB, he held his home run rate under 1.0 HR/9, finishing at 0.92.
Advanced metrics provide an even brighter picture. Megill reported a 3.81 SIERA and a 3.79 xFIP, indicating improved underlying performance. He created a whiff rate of 28%, which is a significant increase from
23.6% the year before. He also relied on a diverse six-pitch mix in 2024, with five of them achieving whiff rates of at least 27%. His splitter, in particular, shone out, with a 42.9% whiff percentage, ranking 13th among pitchers who faced at least 25 batters. Megill utilized a splitter 7.5% of the time last year.
Aside from whiffs, he noticed gains in his ability to force batters to chase pitches out of the zone. His chase rate rose to 30.2% in 2024, a significant increase from his previous high of 25.4% established in 2022. His average exit velocity allowed of 88.9 mph was significantly lower than the MLB average, but it was still a personal high. Meanwhile, his 10% barrel rate corresponded nearly to
His career norms.
Pitch quality improvements aided much of that development. Megill’s fastball velocity increased from an average of 94.9 mph in 2023 to 95.7 mph last season, while his vertical movement decreased from 15.7 inches to 13.8. His Stuff+ score, which measures raw pitch quality, increased from a below-average 89 in 2023 to an above-average 103 in 2024.
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