The Phillies have began extension talks with Zack Wheeler’s team at Wasserman, according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Talks are in their early stages, and there is no indication that a settlement is imminent.
Philadelphia has made no secret of their intention to keep Wheeler beyond the 2024 season. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reported in December that the Phillies regarded an extension a priority. Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, confirmed this last week.
Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, is nearing the end of a five-year free agent contract. The club’s $118 million investment during the 2019-20 offseason has been one of the best free-agent additions in recent years. Wheeler has a 3.06 ERA in his first four seasons with Philadelphia. He has been on three Cy Young votes, including a second-place result in 2021. Only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara, and teammate Aaron Nola have pitched more innings since the beginning of 2020.
The former No. 6 overall choice showed few symptoms of slowing down a year ago. Wheeler made 32 starts and pitched 192 innings. While his 3.61 ERA was his highest as a Phillie, it reflected a general increase in offence across the league. Wheeler’s strikeout rate of 26.9% equals his previous season’s output. He walked only 5% of opponents and ranked 13th in MLB innings. Wheeler got swinging strikes on a career-high 13.3% of his pitches and averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seam fastball.
Wheeler is under contract for $23.5 million for the upcoming season. A contract extension would almost certainly result in higher annual compensation in 2025 and beyond. Long-term extensions for pitchers in their mid-30s are uncommon, as one would expect. Yu Darvish is the first starter over the last five seasons to sign a three-year agreement at the age of 33 or older. Last February, the Padres signed Darvish to a surprising five-year, $90 million contract that covers his age 37-41 seasons.
That’s hardly an ideal comparison for Wheeler, who is three years younger than the San Diego righty at the time. The extension would take effect during his age-35 campaign. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, two pitchers — Max Scherzer and former colleague Jacob deGrom — have signed nine-figure free-agent agreements at that age. Last winter, at age 35, deGrom signed a five-year, $185 million contract with the Rangers. Scherzer signed a three-year, $130 million contract with the Mets that would cover his age 37-39 seasons beginning in November 2021. The $43.33 million average annual value was a record at the time; it is now tied for second, having been matched by Justin Verlander and surpassed by Shohei Ohtani.
Wheeler has yet to equal deGrom and Scherzer’s peak domination. He does, however, have a much better track record of longevity than deGrom, and he is a few years younger than Scherzer was when he signed with New York. These pitchers had the advantage of open market bidding. Wheeler will not have that in his extension talks with Philadelphia, but it will most likely require something close to free-agent prices for him to sign early.
“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done, what they expect out of me,” he told reporters. “It’s not just about money for me, either. I paid less to come here, be in a good place, be happy, and make my family happy. I want — what’s the correct word? — what I believe I deserve. … Market value. “There you go.”
Wheeler has a strong case for a four-year deal at well over nine figures. He has a better track record than Sonny Grey and Chris Bassitt, both of whom signed three-year contracts covering their 34-36 seasons. Grey received $75 million from the Cardinals this winter, and Bassitt signed a $63 million contract with the Blue Jays a year ago.
The Phillies have not been bashful about making long-term commitments, even though no one earns more than $28 million per year. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Taijuan Walker all have contracts worth at least $18 million per season beyond next year. Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos, and Walker have contracts that will go until at least 2026.
Roster Resource estimates that the organization’s 2025 salary will be at $171 million, with approximately $187 million in luxury tax payments. The base tax threshold for the 2025 season will be $241 million. A Wheeler extension would likely put their tax bill above $215 million, possibly exceeding $220 million. They are on track to exceed the threshold for the third consecutive season in 2024, therefore they will face the maximum penalties for repeat payers in 25 and beyond. That has not been an issue for owner John Middleton in recent years. A Wheeler extension would almost guarantee that they will pay the CBT for at least the fourth consecutive season in 2025.
There appears to be no clear timeline for completing a transaction. Wheeler said he’d be open to resuming conversations after Opening Day, but he’s adopting a “hands-off” approach to negotiations with the organization and his agency.
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