Have you ever met Sean Payton? Garrett Grayson (third round) and Ian Book (fourth round) were his highest-drafted quarterbacks while with the New Orleans Saints. The guy who coached a Saints team that spent so recklessly and in the moment, with no regard for the future, that Capital One almost cancelled their credit card? The person who has been secretly linked to all manner of experienced quarterbacks via NFL backchannels almost every season since leaving New Orleans, whether he was officially working as an NFL head coach or not? that is the person that recently fired Russell Wilson?
Okay, so you are familiar. Now tell me this: Why are we believing the Broncos will have a fully normal draft and settle at No. 12 with whatever quarterback the needy teams at the top of the draft decide not to pick? Why are we assuming that this team is satisfied to build naturally when we are paying a huge premium for Payton’s experience in a division that includes Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh? Why are we pretending that the Broncos don’t know what they’ll do at quarterback, and that it has little (if anything) to do with Jarrett Stidham and even less to do with the rookie prospect of the moment?
This is not a capital R report; rather, it is a question that has bothered me and should bother you. Payton is one of the most unashamedly competitive guys in the NFL, and he has no track record of nurturing a rookie quarterback, with the exception of the time he nearly drafted Patrick Mahomes.
Why should we believe that anything has changed?
While I don’t know Payton personally, some coaches dislike working with rookie quarterbacks. Bruce Arians authored a book about it and had the opportunity to work alongside Carson Palmer and Tom Brady while coaching. Payton spent the meat of his career with Drew Brees and, as we all know, was purportedly entangled in a half-baked scheme to join Brady with the Miami Dolphins. There are other coaches that see the NFL as a political operation. Payton began last season by saying he would be astonished if the Broncos missed the playoffs and criticizing the previous regime for misusing Wilson. Then, a few months later, he attempted to fire Wilson after it became evident that the team would almost surely miss the playoffs.
He is fully aware of his current situation, which, yes, benefits him contractually, given that the new Broncos ownership trust fired its previous head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, one year into his contract, then traded for Payton, for whom they have guaranteed nearly $20 million per season and would have to pay out if they parted ways. However, from an optical standpoint, Payton has already hinted at the possibility that he is the genius. A problem solver. The counter-measure. He understands that if he falls for a rookie quarterback in this year’s draft, his carefully cultivated reputation as an offensive guru, quarterback whisperer, and lifelong play-calling genius will be jeopardized. He also understands that, regardless of his own level of personal arrogance, succeeding with a rookie quarterback is almost entirely a blindfolded throw of the dice, no matter how we in the media glorify a team’s process.
So, what does this mean? Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and more players are no longer available in free agency. We’re approaching a draft weekend in which at least three, if not four, clubs will select a top-10 quarterback.
The Broncos are now ranked 12th in the draft, with enough equity to move up, but they are unlikely to do so. Denver has traded picks for both Wilson and Payton in recent years and must rebuild the middle and back half of its team before seriously considering a championship push. They also have a lot of dead money to reconcile on Wilson’s contract.
But none of this has stopped Payton before. Take a look at New Orleans, a club with a financial reputation similar to Enron. Every year, we told ourselves that this club couldn’t possibly spend, trade, or deal, but there they were, signing players with what appeared to be untraceable Starbucks gift card incentives to avoid the dreadful cap.
What’s to stop him now? Why would he stop? The road leads through Mahomes, and there is no quarterback available after No. 10 in this year’s draft who can get the Broncos there. The more complicated question, obviously, is who Denver could sign. Dak Prescott is a free agent next year, and if the Cowboys let him to leave, he is very certain to become the league’s first quarterback to earn $60 million or more. Daniel Jones could be losing favour in New York. Jared Goff is still technically a free agent for next season. Deshaun Watson is locked in with the Browns, but he could eventually sway those who bet their reputations on signing him, rekindling Payton’s “I can fix it” attitude. All of these possibilities appear to be out of reach, but so do Payton’s goals.
That’s why I can’t let this strangely quiet period in the NFL pass without suspecting that people will continue to be who they are, and that the league’s best coaches of all time did not get there without the Machiavellian spirit required to occupy the chair and stockpile winners in the most important role.
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