The Toronto Blue Jays are at a crossroads. Coming out of the All-Star break with a 44-52 record, they are 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Furthermore, their -66 run differential yields a Pythagorean record of 41-55, indicating that their poor record was not influenced by bad luck. As a result, 2024 is already a lost season for Toronto, which is anticipated to be one of the few sellers at the trade deadline this season.
This, of course, leads to the topic of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero, the crown jewel of a Blue Jays prospect wave that catapulted the team back to relevance in the 2020 season, is now in his sixth season and has built an impressive resume, including four straight All-Star appearances (2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024), a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove; had it not been for Shohei “Tungsten Arm O’Doyle” Ohtani, he would have won the 2021 AL MVP. Despite investing heavily in free agency, the Blue Jays have yet to construct a regular contender around him. Now that Guerrero is only a year away from free agency, Toronto must decide whether to trade him and begin a rebuild, or to sign their star first baseman to an extension.
Although Vladito has failed to live up to the hoopla surrounding him since the 2021 season, he remains one of the league’s greatest hitters. Over the last three seasons, his 127 wRC+ ranks 27th out of 182 qualifying batters, as do his 72 home runs. Among first basemen, only Freddie Freeman, Yandy Díaz, Paul Goldschmidt, and Pete Alonso have been more valuable at the plate thus far. This season, only Freeman and Bryce Harper have a higher wRC+ than Guerrero among first basemen (133 versus 169 and 149, respectively). And his Statcast numbers indicate that this should not change.
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