Instead of harping on the obvious, which is that the San Francisco 49ers are struggling because they are disproportionately reliant on a handful of special veteran skill-position players who also tend to accumulate frequent traveller miles on the injury report, let’s focus on something we’ve overlooked about this team’s annual trip into the abyss that makes us wonder if the run is over. (Hint: It is not!) Brock Purdy has been playing well at a period of time when he has not had the ultimate quarterback comfort blanket in Christian McCaffrey.
In Week 3, he was also without George Kittle, who is a physical and mathematical game changer on every down, allowing the 49ers to play against whatever defence they want. And, after Kyle Shanahan played Purdy in meaningless snaps this offseason, also without his best skill-position players, minus his starting offensive line, and without Shanahan calling the plays, it was clear he wanted to see how a quarterback set to earn $60 million per year would perform during the lean years when McCaffrey, Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, and Trent Willliams had all left the picture.
The answer Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, with a limited cast and a version of Brandon Aiyuk who is far from ready after an offseason holdout, was 292 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 loss. Purdy had only one interception all season and one game with a completion percentage of less than 70%. Six of his eight incomplete passes against the Rams were dropped.
He would have had a completion rate greater than 90% otherwise. Purdy entered this week second in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and finished fourth, trailing only Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Aaron Rodgers. He entered this week ranked fourth in down-by-down success rate and seventh in overall EPA. Purdy’s total predicted points added on Sunday was 19.2. In comparison, Matthew Stafford on the other sideline had an 8.3. Stafford was in a very similar situation to Purdy, running a high-powered offence without a significant number of key players.
Down the stretch. On Sunday, Purdy got his team within field goal range, but kicker Jake Moody missed. He effectively placed a ball in the hands of Ronnie Bell on a precision throw that would have changed the game with about a minute left in the fourth quarter, but the ball was dropped. If you paused the program at the correct time, you could see Shanahan, arms raised erect in a FIELD GOAL GOOD signal, before spiking any and all consumable items in his hands to the turf. While the 49ers are not in a hurry to finish what has been one of the best quarterbacking deals of the era, I believe they expect to sign Purdy to a long-term contract and have always expected to.
I also feel that weeks like this, despite losing and falling below.500, are boosting their faith in an idea that the broader public, for some unexplained reason, still finds difficult to grasp.
This is primarily a matter of style over substance. It’s easy to strike a performative, dismissive tone and wonder whether Purdy is worth $60 million (which, if he signs a contract and expects to outperform the current leader in average annual compensation, Dak Prescott, would be in the ballpark of what Purdy would earn). It’s quite another to place Purdy above the rest of the NFL and argue that he is less deserving of a market-resetting contract than other quarterbacks who have reset the market before him.
The money is immaterial. The question now is whether the 49ers should keep him. If they decide to do so, they are fairly certain of the expense. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Chargers have all recently made quarterback moves that we (mostly) saw as obvious and unavoidable. We’ve excluded Purdy from that discourse because we believe he is just a cog in a system surrounded by Ferrari parts. Here’s a funny thought: Brian Flores, the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive coordinator, may have been the best in the first three weeks of the season.
He is definitely tormenting quarterbacks this year and is the underappreciated story of the Vikings’ 2024 season. Purdy had a -1 EPA against Flores, completing 77% of his passes with one touchdown and one interception. What about the other quarterbacks who faced Flores? • C.J. Stroud: -12 EPA, 64% completion rate, 1 score, 2 interceptions. • Daniel Jones: -22(!) EPA, 52% completion rate, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. One of these quarterbacks will almost certainly reset the QB market one day, and you would be laughed out of the room if you suggested otherwise.
Another recently received an extension that brings him within $5 million per season of Patrick Mahomes. The benefits of the extension were undoubtedly disputed (and debated), but they represent the realities of the position, how few really great starters exist, and, in my opinion, how much better the 49ers would be with someone like Purdy. Sure, the 49ers have lost two games, but Shanahan and the team have always understood that wins and losses are not connected to quarterback performance. There is clear evidence of progress. The quarterback statistics–and performances–that matter have not deterred Purdy from signing a record-breaking contract soon.
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