The game isn’t finished yet, but the San Diego Padres are down early against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Division Series. And the potentially fatal error may have already been identified: manager Mike Shildt starting Dylan Cease.
Cease has never pitched with three days of rest in his career. His longest playoff start occurred in Game 1 of the NLDS, where he went 3 1/3 innings and allowed five earned runs on six hits and two walks. Before that? He appeared in two games for the Chicago White Sox in 2020 and 2021, totaling 2 2/3 innings. He gave up three earned runs on two hits and three walks.
He pitched only 1 2/3 innings on Wednesday night. He allowed three earned runs on four hits and one walk. He threw 38 pitches, 22 of which were strikes. Bryan Hoeing came on in relief and promptly gave up two runs of his own. The score was 5-0 in the third inning.
In summary? Not good. Despite being left off the Wild Card roster, Martin Perez was well-rested, and the Padres possessed a stacked bullpen. In retrospect, that seems like the safest option. Because if Perez had struggled (which couldn’t have been much worse than what Cease did), the Padres would have rested both Cease and Yu Darvish for Game 5 at Dodger Stadium.
Shildt, on the other hand, wanted to put the Dodgers in their place, which is entirely acceptable. Had the Cease decision worked out, he would have been hailed as a genius for placing his team in an advantageous position to face the New York Mets in the NLCS.
Unfortunately, this could be the Padres’ undoing. They had so much momentum following their 10-2 win in Game 2 and their exciting 6-5 victory in front of a packed Petco Park on Tuesday night.
Barring a dramatic recovery, they will face the Dodgers on Friday night in Los Angeles, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. Don’t forget that Wednesday night was a bullpen game for LA. Because of their depleted pitching staff, Ryan Brasier began Game 4. This should not have even been a topic.
Mike Shildt’s bold Dylan Cease choice puts the Padres in a vulnerable NLDS predicament.
Cease is undeniably one of the league’s greatest pitchers, but the way he failed to execute in Game 1 should not have earned him another shot on short rest, especially in front of his home fans. When this announcement was made, Padres supporters were understandably pleased, but some of us wondered if this was a typical case of “forcing it.”
In theory, Cease is your greatest pitcher, but he failed to produce when the Padres needed nothing more than a quick exit in Game 1. They had recently lost Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery and were paving a new way forward. After a 10-day gap between his last regular-season start and his first postseason start, he’ll make his second playoff start four days later? Too much of a roller coaster.
Was there a perfect plan? Absolutely not. Would Padres fans have reacted differently if Cease had another chance against the Dodgers on the road in a hypothetical Game 5? Not sure about that.
But there was a potential to offer the Padres a genuine “all hands on deck” situation with two of their greatest pitchers in a do-or-die battle, which is no longer going to be the case.
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