Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level, and the Detroit Lions have the NFL’s greatest offence after eight weeks. They are the team to beat in the NFC North and will pose a formidable task for the Green Bay Packers in Week 9.
There is one major caveat: they have not played a single game outside.
Detroit benefits from playing in a controlled setting, but it will have a different task against the Packers at Lambeau Field. It won’t be the frigid tundra, but an early November game will feature elements the Lions haven’t encountered this season.
The Packers have their own difficulties going into this game, most notably injuries to Jordan Love, Evan Williams, and Jaire Alexander, but the Lions are also beat up and must play outside for the first time.
Wind can be an issue at Lambeau, and the slippery grass field contrasts from the Lions’ quick tracks.
More specifically, Goff’s stats are significantly higher in a dome, which could benefit the Packers. Of course, none of this matters if they can’t stop the run, but if they can force the Lions to throw in order to win, Goff will face a challenge he hasn’t encountered in his MVP campaign.
Jared Goff stats indoors versus outdoors since the beginning of 2023
Goff hasn’t played outside this year, but we can get a better understanding of the change in his performance by looking at statistics from the beginning of last season. He is still a good quarterback in the elements, but his outdoor statistics do not scream MVP.
Indoors, Goff has dominated since the beginning of 2023.
Indoors
Passes 400/566
Completion% 70.7
Yards 4,676
TDs 36
INTs 12
Rating 107.7
Outdoors
It’s a different situation when the Lions do not benefit from playing in a dome. They played five outdoor games last season, going 3-2, with all three wins coming early in the season when conditions were more agreeable. Goff’s numbers outside were significantly more pedestrian.
Passes 147/228
Completion% 64.5
Yards 1,594
TDs 7
INTs 4
Rating 87.9
Jared Goff’s stats on turf versus grass since the beginning of 2023
We can even go a step further. It’s not simply the difference between indoor and outdoor settings, but also the playing surface. Detroit has no issue moving the ball on turf, as Goff’s numbers show, but he hasn’t had the same success on grass grounds.
Turf
What are Goff’s turf numbers since the start of last season? Outstanding. He has completed more than 70% of his passes and has a 108.4 passer rating.
Passes 405/576
Completion% 70.3
Yards 4,810
TDs 36
INTs 11
Rating 108.4
Grass
Again, remove Goff from a more comfortable atmosphere, and his numbers fall. The Lambeau Field surface takes some getting accustomed to, and Goff’s grass metrics from the beginning of 2023 present an interesting picture.
Passes 142/218
Completion% 65.1
Yards 1,460
TDs 7
INT 5
Rating 85.4
The Packers must halt the run. Last season, Detroit scored 34 points at Lambeau Field, thanks primarily to 211 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Jeff Hafley’s team must force the Lions to win with Goff.
He is playing at an MVP level and has a fantastic supporting cast, but the Packers’ path to victory requires Goff to win with his right arm. If they can’t stop the run, forget it.
This season, Detroit will play almost all of its regular-season games indoor. The Packers are used to Lambeau Field’s slick conditions, but the Lions haven’t played outside since January.
Goff’s history implies he isn’t the same quarterback in this type of situation, which the Packers must capitalize on.
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