SD Padres on Fire: Padres Have Officially Issues Final Decision On Luis Arraez An Unexpected Brutal and Heartbreaking Verdict.

One year after drastically changing the direction of their franchise by reducing salary and moving superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, the Padres are once again in a financial bind. According to RosterResource, the club’s payroll level is predicted to remain consistent from 2024 to 2025, with a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls short of the first threshold. Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, since the Padres are currently predicted to have a payroll of just less than $210 million in 2025, with a luxury tax payroll of $244 million, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely aiming to reduce payroll by approximately $40 million this winter, and they’ll undoubtedly be expecting to make additions to the team despite those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to go with Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano, who will weaken the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players released by the club in order to minimize salary would undoubtedly create new gaps that must be filled, placing A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a predicament.

One way the Padres could cut payroll this year is through Luis Arraez. The 27-year-old was acquired by the club in May, and he typically performed well during his time in San Diego this year, posting a.318/.346/.398 slash line for a 111 wRC+ and winning his third straight batting crown. Arraez, a contact savant who has reduced his already amazing 10% strikeout percentage from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this year, struck out an incredible 3.4% of the time while with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more consistent than anybody else in the league when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been so appealing to organizations that the Marlins and Padres have both given up large packages to sign him in recent years.

Arraez’s supernatural ability to make contact is hampered by poor plate discipline, which has caused his walk percentage to slowly fall alongside his strikeout rate over the years, as well as a complete absence of power. Both of these shortcomings were on full display in 2024, when Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of.078, ranking third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While Arraez’s thumb injury this year before surgery in October may have had an impact on his power, his career-high.115 ISO with the Marlins last year ranked just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those weaknesses in his hitting profile and his poor defence, which confined him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s easy to see why the Twins and Marlins were prepared to sell him in recent years.

Could Arraez be traded for the third time in a row this winter? This is likely the simplest way for the Padres to reduce their payroll significantly. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicts that Cease and King will earn large arbitration wages, but neither will exceed the $14.6MM figure that Arraez is currently expected to receive. Clearing that money off the books would reduce the Padres’ payroll to approximately $195 million. While San Diego would need to replace Arraez at first base next year, a number of bats at the position, including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo, are expected to be available for a relative bargain this winter, making it relatively easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup while still coming out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Arraez’s incentives for a potential trade earned him the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 winter trade candidates list.

Having said that, trading Arraez isn’t the Padres’ only option as they attempt to reduce payroll. He has already stated this winter that he is open to an extension with the club as he enters his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have previously worked out contracts that provide the club with additional financial flexibility in the short term and the player with additional security in the long term. That includes deals made right before a player is eligible for free agency, such as the extensions offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez agrees, the Padres might back-load the deal to dramatically cut his 2025 pay and/or offer a lesser AAV over a longer period of time to avoid the luxury tax threshold. A six-year agreement costing $60MM with an AAV of $10MM may save the team around $4.6MM on its luxury tax burden in 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured so that Arraez made only $5MM in the first year of the contract, followed by $11MM salaries for the remainder of the contract, the Padres would save nearly $10MM on their 2025 payroll when compared to his arbitration salary–a figure not far off what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those figures are, of course, entirely hypothetical, and it’s possible that Arraez would not want to commit to a deal with such a low annual pay before seeing what’s available on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan to extend Arraez; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a significant help in addressing San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in the long run, it simply pushes the can down the road to next season, when Arraez’s salary would increase by $6MM, potentially leaving the club in the same financial quagmire they are currently in.

If you were the Padres, would you aim to trade Arraez this winter and replace him at first base, try to sign him long-term, or simply play out the season and decrease payroll elsewhere? Have your opinion in the poll below!