It’s only been three weeks since the Atlanta Falcons lost their NFC South lead to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a last-second home loss, but it feels like a lifetime. Coach Arthur Smith under severe scrutiny in the days following Atlanta’s loss. Soon later, ESPN said Smith’s job was safe unless there was a “late-season collapse.” The Falcons were defeated 9-7 by the Carolina Panthers, who came with a 1-12 record and had lost their previous two games, including a 26-0 thrashing by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Jacksonville hadn’t won a game since November.
Smith was subsequently claimed to have needed “strong performances” with his squad sitting at 6-8… and he delivered the following week. Atlanta rebounded from an embarrassing road loss with its highest margin of victory under Smith, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 29-10 in the season finale. Smith’s chances of returning appeared to improve, and NFL Network affirmed as much this past Saturday night, noting Smith’s departure would be a “surprise”… but with the catch of Atlanta providing “solid performances” in its last two games.
Hours later, Smith’s Falcons suffered their worst loss of the season, a 37-17 road loss to the Chicago Bears (7-9), trailing by double digits for the final 34 minutes. So, what’s next? Is Smith coaching for his job against the New Orleans Saints next Sunday? Following the loss to Chicago, Falcons owner Arthur Blank was approached by media but declined to comment. But the truth is that if Blank is deciding Smith’s fate solely on the outcome of his 51st game as head coach, that should tell the 81-year-old owner all he needs to know.
Smith has a 21-29 record in three seasons in Atlanta; he went 7-10 in his first two years, both of which were regarded acceptable owing to the previous regime’s cap constraints.
This year, however, was meant to be different. The Falcons spent $190 million in free agency to prove it, but they now have a 7-9 record heading into the season finale. Atlanta currently holds the No. 9 overall pick in the April draft, and a defeat Sunday combined with a New York Jets win against the New England Patriots will drop the Falcons to No. 8 overall, the same pick they’ve held the previous two years. In summary, the Falcons would face three seasons under Smith with identical results – the same record, the same draft pick, the same offseason quarterback problems, and the same slight optimism for a different outcome the following year.
Make no mistake: the game in New Orleans on Sunday is crucial. The Falcons are still in contention for the NFC South, and if they win and the Buccaneers lose at Carolina, Atlanta would end its six-year postseason drought. Blank recently stated that making the playoffs isn’t a must for Smith to keep his job… but growth is. Can Smith survive if all of the aforementioned parallels occur? He’d prefer not take the chance, and is instead focused on leading Atlanta to the playoffs.
“We’ve got life,” Smith declared. “As bad as this one feels, I don’t think you’d tell (the team) otherwise.” We have to go win this game.” Taylor Heinicke, the Falcons’ fourth starting quarterback this season after replacing Desmond Ridder for the second time prior to the Colts game, expressed similar sentiments to his coach. “It feels really shitty right now, to come up here and get beat like that,” he remarked. “But you want the fact that we still have a chance going into week 18.” If someone told us in week 18 that we’d have a shot to make the playoffs, we’d take it.
“That’s where we’re at the moment. We’re going to focus on the Saints this weekend, go up there and beat them, and root for the Panthers.” The Falcons have a shot, but they’ve tripped themselves several times this season, robbing them of the ability to dictate their own destiny. It extends beyond the 20-point setback to Chicago on Sunday. The Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, and Arizona Cardinals all have 4-12 records in the NFL. Add in the Panthers, who are 2-14, and you have the NFL’s poorest four teams. Except for the Patriots, the Falcons have lost to all three.
Although Atlanta outgained Washington in total yards, quarterback Desmond Ridder threw three interceptions. Both Arizona and Carolina won with last-second field goals. Smith’s squad was also defeated on the road by the Tennessee Titans (5-11), who have the No. 7 overall pick, as rookie quarterback Will Levis threw four touchdown passes in his debut. Furthermore, the Falcons fell to the Minnesota Vikings (7-9) in the final seconds when backup quarterback Josh Dobbs, who was acquired in a trade days previously and was still learning the scheme, tossed the game-winning touchdown, one of three he was responsible for.
All of those games were winnable, not only on paper, but also given the opportunity presented in the fourth quarter. Sunday’s defeat was not quite the same. “There’s definitely some games we lost that I feel like we should’ve won – today wasn’t one of them,” defensive end Calais Campbell said after the game, according to FOX5’s Kelly Price. “They just played a fantastic game, far superior to ours.” “The ones that come down to one score hurt a lot.”This one hurts as well, but it’s like, “Wow, we just got beat.” ‘We were handled.'” Part of Campbell’s dissatisfaction, as a 37-year-old veteran and recognized leader, stems from the Falcons’ periods of true success.
While Atlanta is 2-5 against teams with top-10 draft picks, it is 3-3 against current playoff teams, including a convincing win over Indianapolis just a week before the blowout defeat in Chicago. Inconsistency has been a concern for the Falcons all season, with Smith emphasizing that it’s about more than just the win-loss record, but there’s evidence that Atlanta can play at a high level when it’s on. The problem is that Smith’s squad hasn’t been able to stack wins, with the Falcons failing to win three consecutive games during his tenure.
“There have been many ups and downs,” Campbell explained. “There’s moments where we look like a team that’s legit, that can go win a Super Bowl, and there’s moments where we look like a team that isn’t very good.” In this occasion, the Falcons looked legitimate against the Colts, who are 9-7 and now hold the AFC’s wildcard slot. Atlanta was worse than “not very good” versus Chicago just seven days later. Why are the Falcons unable to bring it all together? Campbell has no idea. Smith has been trying to figure it out for the entire season, if not three years. Blank must now determine whether he can endure another year of brainstorming. Perhaps the more important question here is if the Falcons are in “late-season collapse” territory.
With a loss to New Orleans in Week 18, Atlanta would conclude the season 1-4, after seizing sole possession of the NFC South. One had to conclude that not only losing the division and missing the playoffs, but also suffering the Falcons’ lackluster defeats, fits into the category of a collapse. It’s a more compelling debate at 2-3, but Smith probably gets the benefit of the doubt in this case.
But, nevertheless, Blank now has the whole city of Atlanta focused on his decision, which was the last thing he expected in September. Progress was required… and there simply hasn’t been enough after 16 games. “At the end of the day, it’s a results-oriented business and you’ve got to get the job done,” he said. “And when you don’t, everyone wants answers.” Blank will have the final word, but his decision should not be based on whether the Falcons win or lose on Sunday.
Instead, it should be about the last three years and if he believes Smith has done enough to rebuild the team and create a positive locker room culture to turn things around in 2024. What’s the difference between 21-30 and 22-29, after all? Blank is known for his patience, and he’s not looking forward to starting over on the bench… but he may have little option.
Leave a Reply