According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Tigers and right-hander Jack Flaherty have agreed to a one-year, $14 million contract. Flaherty will join the Tigers, according to Trevor Plouffe of Jomboy. Passan also mentions that Flaherty can earn an additional $1M in bonuses based on the number of games started: $250K at 26 and 28, followed by another $500K at 30. CAA Sports represents Flaherty.
Flaherty, who is only 28 years old, resembles one of the National League’s burgeoning young aces. Prior to making his big league debut in 2017, the former first-round pick was one of the sport’s top all-around prospects.
The California native pitched to a 3.34 earned run average in 151 big league innings the following year, but Flaherty’s best work came, of all times, during the juiced-ball season in 2019. The 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 1.15 HR/9 that year would have been impressive in any season, but they were especially impressive in the highest run-scoring environment since the steroid era. Two teams broke MLB’s single-season home run record that year, and while many pitchers in the league had career-low numbers, Flaherty shone brightest.
Unfortunately for Flaherty and the Cardinals, his stellar start to his career did not last. Injuries, primarily shoulder problems, conspired to limit Flaherty to only 154 1/3 innings over the next three seasons. During that time, his velocity was slightly lower (93.9 mph) than his peak of 94.5 mph, and his walk and home-run rates were trending in the wrong direction. Overall, he had a 3.90 ERA but was limited to 32 starts (plus three bullpen appearances).
Flaherty’s 2023 season will be split between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him in a trade deadline deal that sent lefty Drew Rom and prospects Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter back to St. Louis. For the righty, the season was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Flaherty’s 27 starts and 144 1/3 innings were clearly his healthiest season since that outstanding ’19 effort. His 4.99 ERA, on the other hand, was a career low (outside of a 21-inning sample as a rookie in 2017). His strikeout rate of 22.8% was about average, but Flaherty’s walk rate of 10.6% was high, and his average heater speed of 93.2 mph was even lower.
Despite his poor performance in 2023, Flaherty drew interest from at least the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers, though his market was likely to include other suitors. Given his age, former prospect pedigree, and previous accomplishments, it makes sense to take a chance on Flaherty.
While we predicted a three-year deal for the righty – assuming a team would extend a multi-year pact in the hopes of acquiring a below-market bargain – a straight one-year pillow deal always figured to be on the table. Flaherty can return to the market as a 29-year-old in position for a much more lucrative deal if he performs well this year. The downside, of course, is that if Flaherty continues to underperform, he may find himself with significantly less earning power and no interest in multi-year contracts. Despite that potential, he’ll take a more traditional approach and hope to profit a year from now.
If things go as planned, the Tigers will not only have the opportunity to help Flaherty return to something resembling his peak levels, but they will also be able to extend a qualifying offer to the righty. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes a possibility, but Flaherty’s early-career performance demonstrates that he clearly has the talent to warrant that type of offer when he’s at his best.
Flaherty is the second free-agent addition to a Tigers rotation that will be vastly different from what we saw in 2023. Eduardo Rodriguez, the veteran lefty, opted out of his three-year, $49 million contract and signed a four-year, $80 million deal with the NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks. Flaherty and righty Kenta Maeda, who had a strong finish to his 2023 season with the division rival Twins, will take over as veteran rotation leaders for skipper AJ Hinch.
The Tigers will not only have that newly signed pair of arms, but they will also welcome back Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 who missed the season due to Tommy John surgery. The team’s top starter, lefty Tarik Skubal, returns, and the quartet of Skubal, Flaherty, Maeda, and Mize will be joined by some combination of Reese Olson, Matt Manning, and Sawyer Gipson-Long. Olson, in particular, had a strong rookie season. Meanwhile, Manning is a former first-round pick and top prospect who will be hoping for better fortune in 2024. Manning suffered a broken left foot on two separate occasions, both after being hit by a comeback liner (once in April and again in September).
With Flaherty’s $14 million salary factored in, the Tigers’ payroll is expected to top $104 million. That’s still a long way down from last year’s $135M Opening Day total, thanks in part to Miguel Cabrera’s retirement, and nowhere near the franchise-record $200M total. The Tigers will undoubtedly want to give young, potential core players like Mize, Skubal, Manning, Olson, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, and prospects Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy plenty of playing time. However, the team still has enough payroll space to make some additional additions, possibly in the bullpen or on the bench.
Leave a Reply