This article was taken from Jason Beck’s Tigers Beat newsletter. Click here to read the entire newsletter. And subscribe to receive it in your inbox on a regular basis.
Like former team president/CEO Dave Dombrowski, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris is incapable of declaring his team has adequate pitchers. There is no such thing as having enough pitching, according to the two.
Still, Harris couldn’t help but smile as he assessed Detroit’s possible rotation heading into Spring Training following last month’s signing of Jack Flaherty.
“I think when we show up in Lakeland [for Spring Training], we’re going to have a lot of starting pitching options,” Harris told reporters last month. “That’s a great start for us.” Good teams have really competitive camps, and we are attempting to be one of them. We are moving in that direction.”
Harris is not alone in this regard. As the folks at Codify Baseball noted out, Fangraphs projections are also favorable to the team.
Fangraphs takes the top ten starting pitching candidates on each team’s depth chart and calculates projected WAR using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS predictions. The Tigers’ projected 12.2 WAR from their top ten starting pitchers placed 11th in MLB, and second in the AL Central.
The top three teams were unsurprising: the Braves, Phillies, and Dodgers. The Twins, the defending division champions, were rated seventh. The Brewers finished 10th, led by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta. The overhauled Cardinals rotation, which includes free-agent signings Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, was placed 12th, followed by the Yankees and the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks.
This isn’t a significant improvement for the Tigers, who had 11.2 fWAR from their starters last year, good for 12th in MLB and second in the AL Central. However, two of Detroit’s three greatest starts by WAR last year are no longer on the roster. Eduardo Rodriguez (3.0 fWAR) is in Arizona, and Michael Lorenzen (1.7) is a free agent after being traded to Philadelphia before the Trade Deadline last summer. According to estimates, Detroit will overcome this.
Tarik Skubal, whose projected 4.0 WAR ranks ninth among MLB pitchers and third in the AL behind Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez, accounts for over a third of the Tigers’ projected starting WAR. Skubal is projected to go 11-9 in 29 starts and 171 innings, with a 3.34 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Since Justin Verlander in 2016, no Tigers pitcher has posted a 4.0 fWAR season. Skubal, on the other hand, had 3.3 fWAR in just 15 starts last year, going 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 102 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 80 1/3 innings.
While Skubal’s projected WAR more than twice that of any other Tigers starter, Detroit has four other starters with 1.0 WAR or better, lead by newcomer Kenta Maeda (2.0, his best since 2020), Reese Olson (1.8), and Flaherty (1.5, down from his 1.8 fWAR last year). Maeda and Flaherty’s signings boosted the Tigers up the rankings. Casey Mize is expected to return from Tommy John surgery with 1.0 WAR.
Matt Manning (0.9), No. 19 prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long (0.5), No. 6 prospect Ty Madden (0.2), Joey Wentz (0.1), and No. 7 prospect Wilmer Flores (0.1) round out the top five. Madden and Flores spent last season at Double-A Erie, but are on track to make their Major League debuts this season if things go as planned. Brant Hurter, the No. 12 prospect, and Keider Montero, the No. 26 prospect, were not included.
“I think that this organization from a starting-pitching standpoint is a lot deeper than it was even just as recently as a year ago,” Harris said in an interview. “This is due to the addition of two starters in free agency.” That’s because some rookie pitchers made great strides in the big leagues last year. And that’s because we’re feeling some pressure from young pitchers in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues who are exhibiting that they’re starting to knock on the door and get a lot closer to being in the big leagues. It’s a fantastic problem to have.”
More projection models will be added to the debate as they become available. For the time being, it’s an intriguing way to anticipate baseball season as winter approaches. Detroit could yet add to the list with another depth signing, but no major acquisitions are likely. Harris may always make a trade from there, but don’t bank on it.
“We did not add Jack intending to trade one of our starters,” Harris told reporters. “We’re always going to listen to opportunities to make trades to make the organization better, but that was not the goal with adding Jack.”
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